The real upside is they may end up lasting almost forever as all the parts are either more replaceable or undergo less ware. The idea of a car having a single part break that makes it better to scrap it might be over.
I spent a number of years in the auto industry, and electric hybrids get scrapped immediately when the batteries go, for a number of reasons. High voltage mechanics don't want to handle(not that its really that dangerous they just would rather not deal with it) The batteries are the problem they do not last and they can be reconditioned but you lose cells and have to replace them with cells from other scrapped batteries. Electric cars are not at the moment a good solution with current battery technology if you ask me.
As long as it takes rare earth minerals to make the batteries and coal/natural gas to produce the electricity they are not even close to the efficiency of a gasoline powered car.
As for replacing parts and scrapping cars due to that most auto shops make most of their money not on walk in customers or retail they make their money on working for dealerships who buy cars with major problems at auction and fix them for a profit. Just a few months ago I saw 2013 ford focus with a blown motor that got replaced 3 times before it was able to be sold. The dealer still came out on top. Granted they completely fucked over the customer but my point is its a huge industry and there are a lot of cars sitting in junk yards but far more would be going there if everything was electric.
My Apologies for the wall of text.
PS How you doing man?
Modern electrics have lots of computer controls, electronics, and proprietary lithium batteries in them. Electric motors still have bearings that will wear out, and there's no guarantees you're going to be able to get that electric motor or computer with operating system in 10 years.
I can, at great cost, have things like bearings and piston rings made for my old Ford, assuming they aren't available. You'll need to find a motor rewinder to fix your electric in 20 years, assuming you paid the thousands to replace the battery pack.
Good point about computer parts. I have worried about that too, but circuit boards are easy to replace. Other manufacturers have ECUs (electronic control units) from numerous vendors scattered all around their cars all running their own proprietary code. Please look here [https://www.smart2zero.com/news/new-gm-digital-vehicle-platform-enable-future-technologies] to see General Motors new auto wiring network of ECUs. Tesla controls the entire software stack and has it largely centrally located.
About batteries. Currently Teslas in the wild are demonstrating about 300,000 miles before a 20% degradation. The vehicle still goes just as fast, but only 80% as far. The new 4680 cells that Tesla just revealed will certainly do much better with experts such as Jeff Dahn [https://thedriven.io/2020/10/20/tesla-research-chief-jeff-dahn-says-two-million-mile-battery-possible-and-needed-for-v2g/] indicating charge cycles giving more than a million miles. Hybrids use small batteries with older chemistry which couldn't offer the life we are now seeing with full BEVs.
About bearings. Yes they can fail, but electric motors only rotate. They don't load their bearings like pistons hammer their connecting rod and main bearings. An electric motor has about 20 parts with only one moving whereas an internal combustion engine has well over 1,000 parts with hundreds moving. If the propulsion unit should have to be replaced, electric motors are less expensive that internal combustion engines.
Good on you for thinking and looking 20 years ahead, but I think by that time there will be more EVs that ICEs. Time will tell.
Gasoline engines are far cheaper than electric drives. I'm not sure where you've come up with electrics are cheaper, but here's a comparison for you:
For example, a crate engine for my car is about $2700.
https://www.summitracing.com/parts/vre-dfn9/make/ford
An electric drive for a Tesla S is $12k - are these even real? Who knows if your car will accept the transplant. You've certainly voided the warranty.
https://www.evwest.com/catalog/product_info.php?cPath=8&products_id=476
If you check that page, you'll see that non-Tesla drives are still 3K and up. The cheapest is a 48V 35HP motor. That's an electric factory truck. Most of the electrics on that page aren't rated for road use, they're open to the air.
Tesla has a lot of problems even supplying repair parts for new cars. Do you trust them to replace your drive in 15 years?
https://forums.tesla.com/discussion/77550/replacement-parts-why-are-they-impossible-to-get
I'm an electronics tech. Circuit boards are "not easy to replace." Electronics in cars are usually buried in other things, but the nice thing about gasoline engines is that many of the systems can die or go funny and the car will still run - albeit badly.I currently have many systems on my 2007 Focus disabled because they died. Does the engine computer care? Yeah, but it just throws a code and life goes on. Tesla does things like uses consumer-grade flash (why is there even written flash in a car?) that wears out and soft-bricks systems.
https://www.tuxera.com/blog/tesla-troubles-averting-automotive-flash-memory-failure/
That's a rookie mistake. If you constantly need to write things to a drive then it better be a SLC with some massive wear leveling and can be easily replaced if it dies.
Batteries are a theoretical maximum, and Tesla begins limiting your charge rate after a while, suggesting the battery has degraded far in advance of 300,000 miles. This type of battery isn't rated like that, it's rated in how much charge it's taken. Once it's taken so much charge, the battery is considered "degraded." Consumers equate that with time, but that's only because most devices don't measure the charge amount given vs. time.
https://electrek.co/2017/05/07/tesla-limits-supercharging-speed-number-charges/
I remember the 20% you're quoting. That was one car. Tesla called the 22% degradation "aggressive." But that was also only a few years of use. Was the degradation due to charging, or age? The article didn't say. Are you going to have that after 12 years of hot and cold? 20? I've seen plenty of gasoline cars run with little to no maintenance other than normal stuff if you run them for 200,000 miles in 3 years. My current vehicle is 12 years old. Other than normal maintenance, I've replaced an alternator. That's an electric motor in reverse, and it died.
https://electrek.co/2018/07/17/tesla-model-s-holds-up-400000-miles-3-years/
Electric motors still wear out. Sealed bearings dry out. Depending on what kind it is, brushes wear out. Enamel on the windings flakes off. Get a little road salt in there and the whole thing is toast. The commutator drives die if it's a brushless drive. We have well over 100 years of knowledge on gasoline engines. We barely have 20 on modern electrics, as the previous generation of EVs were nothing like what we have today.
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