Not a fan of electric vehicles myself, they use way to many rare earth minerals for to low a return in efficiency.
The real upside is they may end up lasting almost forever as all the parts are either more replaceable or undergo less ware. The idea of a car having a single part break that makes it better to scrap it might be over.
I spent a number of years in the auto industry, and electric hybrids get scrapped immediately when the batteries go, for a number of reasons. High voltage mechanics don't want to handle(not that its really that dangerous they just would rather not deal with it) The batteries are the problem they do not last and they can be reconditioned but you lose cells and have to replace them with cells from other scrapped batteries. Electric cars are not at the moment a good solution with current battery technology if you ask me.
As long as it takes rare earth minerals to make the batteries and coal/natural gas to produce the electricity they are not even close to the efficiency of a gasoline powered car.
As for replacing parts and scrapping cars due to that most auto shops make most of their money not on walk in customers or retail they make their money on working for dealerships who buy cars with major problems at auction and fix them for a profit. Just a few months ago I saw 2013 ford focus with a blown motor that got replaced 3 times before it was able to be sold. The dealer still came out on top. Granted they completely fucked over the customer but my point is its a huge industry and there are a lot of cars sitting in junk yards but far more would be going there if everything was electric.
My Apologies for the wall of text.
PS How you doing man?
Modern electrics have lots of computer controls, electronics, and proprietary lithium batteries in them. Electric motors still have bearings that will wear out, and there's no guarantees you're going to be able to get that electric motor or computer with operating system in 10 years.
I can, at great cost, have things like bearings and piston rings made for my old Ford, assuming they aren't available. You'll need to find a motor rewinder to fix your electric in 20 years, assuming you paid the thousands to replace the battery pack.
Good point about computer parts. I have worried about that too, but circuit boards are easy to replace. Other manufacturers have ECUs (electronic control units) from numerous vendors scattered all around their cars all running their own proprietary code. Please look here [https://www.smart2zero.com/news/new-gm-digital-vehicle-platform-enable-future-technologies] to see General Motors new auto wiring network of ECUs. Tesla controls the entire software stack and has it largely centrally located.
About batteries. Currently Teslas in the wild are demonstrating about 300,000 miles before a 20% degradation. The vehicle still goes just as fast, but only 80% as far. The new 4680 cells that Tesla just revealed will certainly do much better with experts such as Jeff Dahn [https://thedriven.io/2020/10/20/tesla-research-chief-jeff-dahn-says-two-million-mile-battery-possible-and-needed-for-v2g/] indicating charge cycles giving more than a million miles. Hybrids use small batteries with older chemistry which couldn't offer the life we are now seeing with full BEVs.
About bearings. Yes they can fail, but electric motors only rotate. They don't load their bearings like pistons hammer their connecting rod and main bearings. An electric motor has about 20 parts with only one moving whereas an internal combustion engine has well over 1,000 parts with hundreds moving. If the propulsion unit should have to be replaced, electric motors are less expensive that internal combustion engines.
Good on you for thinking and looking 20 years ahead, but I think by that time there will be more EVs that ICEs. Time will tell.
The new 4680 battery cells that Tesla just revealed use no cobalt. Lithium, graphite, and silicon are abundant. The scarcest element that Tesla uses is nickel which is moderately expensive, but not rare. Electric vehicle technology is improving much faster than internal combustion technology. My limited research indicates that EV's are much more efficient than ICE vehicles. This is even more true when one considers the externalities of mining battery minerals vs oil extraction and refining. Moreover, it is easier, cleaner, and cheaper to distribute electricity than gasoline or diesel. Lastly, please consider that more and more of our electricity is being created by renewable technology like solar and wind. I believe we have reached a tipping point, and while not there yet, we are on our way to a transportation future superior in every way. Try to catch a ride in a Tesla, if you can. It is a step change that is hard to communicate, but instantly understandable when you experience it.
I've actually driven a tesla roadster(I guess those are old now?) I still don't see it beating ICE's on efficiency anytime soon. A gas engine can be repaired a lot more times than an electric can I would guess.
Different strokes though only time will tell. I'm all for whatever ends up working out best. If its electric then so be it, if its gas or even natural gas or hydrogen(I got to drive a hydrogen ford focus once that was kind of neat). It really doesn't matter to me at the end of the day I just want the most efficient energy I can get to move me from A to B
I for one will be sad the day that I can't go out and rev up a motorcycle and hear that sound, not that has anything to do with anything but it is a fun sound.
I like the way you think, my motorcycle brother!
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