Ahhhhhhh ahahah..... I didn't think of this one.... >>It is unlikely that events will spiral out of control to the extent that Tajikistan requests Russian assistance through the CSTO, but the fact that both Armenia (which recently fought a war with Azerbaijan in Nagorno-Karabakh) and Tajikistan (which currently faces a threat from irregular forces in Afghanistan) are members of the pact indicates that there are serious challenges facing states of the former Soviet Union. >>It also reveals the importance of Moscow as a guarantor of regional security. **With the United States on the retreat, there is no state other than Russia with the military capacity to play this role in the Caucasus and Central Asia.** Both in brokering a peace settlement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and in offering aid to Tajikistan, Russia is stepping up to this role. I think the author is neglecting one key element here; russia has a GDP comparable to Italy's GDP, russia doesn't have the financial strength of the US. However, china does. Are the US trying to pull a soviet-financial-collapse all over again on russia? They would need to crash natural gas prices, and oil too for that, and force russia into endless regional quagmires...