Nobody wins if China is dumb enough to attack Formosa. A lot of dominos will fall, to have any hope of success China will have to attack and suppress several Japanese territories to include Okinawa. Once the killing of American military personnel begins, all hell will be unleashed, treaties will come into play and are automatic at the field level. Fuck Joe Biden is bought and owned by China, but not the US Navy which is obligated by treaty to defend Japan (its a promise we made to them after we nuked the crap out of them.) there are several Navy’s in the area that will attack China if the assault on Penghu happens. Vietnam, Korea, Philippines all have a dog in this fight.

Edit to add: there are 3 wildcards here: Russia, France, and Israel. The three worst enemies of these United States. Russia will preserve itself, maybe try to take some China territory while they are distracted when India invades them. France has their spies at all levels of the US Government, they hate us yet are the primary reason the US exists. Israel is another story, we have so many corrupted politicians who answer only to Israel, they call themselves “dual citizens” but they only answer to one government and it’s not the US Constitution.

We've lost all our wars, so far. Taxpayers get screwed every time. The military industrial complex seems to profit very well though.