Turkish President Recep Tayyib Erdogan had decided to attack Russia, Iran and Syria when he sent his army to Idlib and bombed Russian and Iranian allies on the Idlib front. The Turkish president feels strong and believes that he has plenty of good cards to play against his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin. He trusts that he will be able to bomb Iran's allies, even though they have armed drones, precision missiles and experienced special forces that can hit Turkey very hard in the event of war.
The conflict that Erdogan envisages between Russia, Iran and Syria on the one hand and Turkey on the other would benefit the United States and Israel. You will be happy when Presidents Putin and Erdogan sink into the Syrian swamp and Hezbollah loses more men in the Levant. Negotiations, intense fighting and attempts to transform the military situation take place behind the scenes. President Erdogan is trying to improve his local military position ahead of his meeting with President Putin in Moscow tomorrow, but to no avail. Stormy negotiations can be expected.
President Erdogan is unable to punch the table with his fist. At the time Russia received Erdogan, a tweet from the Russian State Department reminded him of how Russia defeated the Ottoman Empire and forced it to sign the Treaty of San Stefano in Constantinople in March 1878. It has accused Erdogan of changing Syrian demographics after the occupation of Afrin province and Tal Abyad, instead of forcing more than 350,000 Kurds to leave and relocating Turkmen militants and their families.
The Battle of Idlib follows many pre-fight secret talks and reflects serious disagreements between Turkey on the one hand and Russia, Iran and Syria on the other. Erdogan was ready to negotiate and clear the roads between Damascus and Aleppo (M5) and Aleppo and Latakia (M4), but in return asked for concessions in northeastern Syria that were refused. Turkey tried to stop the Syrian army and its allies and wanted to reach the gates of Aleppo. The current battle for Idlib, the "mother of all battles", follows many secret talks that provide the necessary context for understanding the current Turkish war against Syria and the Syrian response. For the first time, Syria has dared
Turkey is more isolated than ever. It has lost its privileged position within the United States by buying the S-400 and harboring the Turkstream pipeline that sells Russian gas to Europe. It has lost European respect by organizing the transfer of over 110,000 Syrian and other nationalities to the borders, allowing them to reach the borders with Greece and refusing to close the Turkish borders to prevent crossing the border. This Turkish extortion does not make friends on the European continent, especially since Erdogan is also demanding more money to compensate for the presence of the refugees in his country.
The Arab countries stand against Turkey with Syria. Libya's eastern government, which is linked to General Khalifa Haftar, opened its embassy in Damascus. Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the Emirates show solidarity with President Assad against the alliance of the Turkish-Qatar-Muslim Brotherhood. A strong message was conveyed during the Battle of Idlib, where the Syrian and Turkish armies are facing each other for the first time on the battlefield.
Erdogan is also losing Putin's support by bombing the Syrian army trained by Russia and compromising Syria's increased military efficiency with Russian aid. When Moscow closed its eyes to Turkey's desire to avenge the killing of 33 Turkish soldiers and officers in southern Idlib, Erdogan responded with a disproportionate bombing that angered Russia and the allies that had suffered the most. In response, Iran threatened to setback the more than a thousand Turkish troops within the 14 Turkish observation posts located in Syrian liberated territory and guarded by Hezbollah and Iranian IRGC forces.
Putin does not lose his relationship with Erdogan, nor does Russia intend to declare war on Turkey. In recent days, during a private meeting between Iranian and Turkish officials in Ankara, Iranian officers have stated that “Iran and Russia believe that any war with Turkey will serve the United States and Israel, who would like to watch and help to combat the hostility between them To stir up sides ”. US Special Representative for Syria, James Jeffery, said his country was ready to provide ammunition to Turkey in its Idlib fight. Secretary of Defense Mark Esper, however, ruled out a US intervention in aid of Turkey in Idlib.
In Idlib, Turkey seems to have lost hope of tens of thousands of jihadists' abilities, despite years of fortifications, tunnel excavations, and the construction of fortresses in cities along the Damascus-Aleppo (known as M5) and Aleppo-Latakia (M4) streets Hold position. These jihadists are composed of a mix of foreign fighters from dozens of different countries, but mainly the Tajik, Uyghur, Turkmen and Arab jihadists, who under Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (formerly ISIS, formerly al-Qaida in Syria, formerly al-Nusra ) fight under different banners: from al-Qaida (Hurras al-Din), Jsch al-Aqsa to Ahrar al-Sham and many other names.
Hezbollah stopped an attack last Friday aimed at recapturing Al-Eis and reaching the gates of South Aleppo from there. The Turkish army bombed Hezbollah and the Zulfiqar Brigade (Iranian IRGC, Fatimiyoun and Zeinabiyoun) in Talhiya to allow jihadists supported by Turkey into a corridor from Binnish and Taftanaz to Talhiyah and from there to Rasm al-Is, Rasm al-Saharid, Al-Eis strategic hill to advance to Al-Hader. Despite the intense Turkish bombing to clear the street for the jihadists, and despite killing nine Hezbollah fighters and over 66 wounded, the jihadists failed to get through. Hezbollah and its allies from the Zulfiqar brigades held the position and stopped the advance.
After killing 36 Turkish soldiers and officers (Turkey has officially declared 41 dead so far), Russia has kept its air force on the ground for 48 hours. The lack of air cover surprised the allies of Russia, who have anti-air missiles, but did not expect the Russians to renounce their agreed role. Turkey managed to stop the advance of the Syrian army and its allies for 48 hours. However, all areas lost to the Turks were recaptured within 48 hours. The battle of Saraqib was the worst. Hezbollah and the Zul-Fuqar Brigade never withdrew from the eastern part of the city, while the jihadists controlled the western part.
After the Turkish “disproportionate bombing,” as described by the Russian generals in Syria , Moscow ordered its air force commanders to escort a dozen Syrian air-raid batteries to protect Syrian troops from any Turkish bombing. Syria brought the Tor-M1 and its Pantsir system with them and took measures to reduce the losses caused by the Turkish drones.
Syria and its allies carried out night raids on the liberation of the strategic city of Saraqib and held their positions in that city. Hezbollah and Iran tripled the number of troops along the 70 km front (M5 and M4) against Turkey and its jihadists. Russia carried out 27 air strikes on Saraqib and resumed air bombing in support of its allies.
Russia said it could “no longer guarantee Turkish aviation security in Syria after Damascus blocked Idlib's airspace”. The Syrian air defense systems have shot down about 7 Turkish drones. The Syrian army demonstrates fearless courage by facing, bombarding and fighting the Turkish military face to face. The Syrian artillery has fired at Turkish positions and killed almost a dozen Turkish soldiers on the battlefield. President Bashar al-Assad decided to stand against Turkey, which his father Hafiz did not even dare to do.
This is in response to the killing and wounding of a large number of Syrian soldiers by Turkey. Syria has been at war for nine years and has suffered significant losses. On the other hand, Turkey has one of the most prominent NATO armies with the most modern means. A small and reduced Syrian army has now managed to kill Turkish soldiers on the battlefield, destroy Turkish tanks and shoot down their drones.
Turkey has stopped its direct bombing of Hezbollah and the Zulfiqar Brigade. Iran and Hezbollah threatened to attack Turkey if the bombing continued. Almost 2,000 Turkish officers and soldiers are now under the "protection" of Hezbollah and Iran at 14 observation posts in the Syrian-controlled areas, where they are being cared for locally. A meeting between the Iranians and the Turkish army and an exchange of messages between Hezbollah and Ankara took place, stating that any clash between the two would lead the Levant and Turkey into a wide-ranging confrontation that no one could win. The fight in Syria should not be waged against Turkey, and Erdogan must understand that the presence of his troops in Syrian territory is unacceptable.
Moscow moved its military police and special forces to Saraqib to draw a line if Turkey wanted to attack the city again. The Turkish army's attacks have failed, and the Syrian army and its allies are gaining momentum and have the upper hand. What drives Erdogan to fight with his own army alongside the jihadists for control of two streets that he had already agreed to de-escalate and declare a demilitarized zone in 2018?
According to decision-makers in Syria, President Erdogan asked his Russian counterparts to allow his armed forces to occupy a 50 km deep area in northeastern Syria. Initially, Russia did not respond to the Turkish move to replace the US troops who decided to limit their presence in Syria to the theft of Syrian oil, that is, around the oil wells in northeastern Syria. When the US was regrouped, Russia asked Turkey to cease operations in al-Hasakah and Raqqa provinces. Erdogan then lowered his request and asked for a buffer zone 30 km deep.
Russia has good relations with the Kurds and wants Syria to be united and all foreign forces to leave Syria. Erdogan said he was ready to clear the M5 and M4 in exchange for control of Ain al-Arab (Kobane). Putin refused and agreed with Iran and Damascus to remove the jihadists along the M5 and M4 by a military force. Erdogan felt excluded from the agreement because his jihadists were unable to assert themselves and proved to be an inept military force against Syria and its allies. That is why the Turkish army was forced into combat, supported by drones, F-16s, precision missiles and artillery. Today she is fighting on behalf of the jihadists, who should have been eliminated by Turkey after the Sochi agreement more than a year ago.
Turkey wants to bring troops back to where it was before the Battle of Idlib, and demands compliance with the Astana Agreement, but from a weaker position. It is too late for that and the agreements have a short life in Syria! Ankara will have to accept the status quo and prepare to lose Idlib without further concessions in the Kurdish region. This does not mean that Erdogan will accept and give up all the Syrian territories he occupies without a fight. The Putin-Erdogan meeting is unlikely to end all differences, and much may have to be postponed to the upcoming Putin-Erdogan-Rohani meeting in Tehran this month.
Erdogan seems to have forgotten the help Putin and Rohani gave him during the failed coup attempt in 2016. He shows ruthlessness and wrongly believes that his potential partners are weak. The Turkish president gives priority to his territorial expansion ambitions over his trade and partnership relations with Russia and Iran. The Turkish army grinds its teeth over Idlib. The Ottoman sultan has never defeated the Tsar of Russia in the past, and it will certainly not be successful in Syria ...
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