Brass, lead, gold. R'amen

That is a really cool graphic. Agree with your line of thought.

> For now I'm thinking all "virtual" with zero investment other than time/manpower, a literal cheap trick Useful ranges for sure. Hyper-pessimist, very pessimistic, somewhat pessmistic, neutral, somewhat optimistic, very optimistic, hyperoptimistic. We still don't have the five other opinion categories to form a range of estimates. I mainly based my take on 1. fertilizer prices *now* 2. at the start of planting seasons (so even if fertilizer normalizes, it wont change the outcome) 3. affecting both food prices, and *gasoline* prices (due to the use of ethanol to dilute gasoline and stabilize the cost). This is aside from monetary easing, questions about the legitimacy of the petrodollar, various estimates of OPEC remaining reserves, questions surrounding taiwan, the ESG push, political hyperpolarization here and abroad, chinese financial contagion, etc. Fertilizer, nat gas, and planting *now*, affects food prices winter/spring, but will take time to move down the chain to consumers, because of the lag time introduced by warehouses. I say 9-24 months (actually my best estimate was 18 months), so that gives us three numbers to work with, 5, 9, and 18. The average is 10.66, representing the [5, 9] cluster with 18 as an outlier. The scale is geometric rather than additive, matching the increasing exponential risk of some sort of economic or political disaster for the u.s. at home or abroad. Every month that passes exponentially increases the chance for something to go sideways The geometric mean of our estimates here is 9.32, very close to the median, and slightly below the 10.66 average estimate. This is closer than I expected based on my own intuition and reasoning (the 9 month was a "worst case" that seemed to be excessively unrealistic), but theres definitely potential for a major war, or panic-buying spurred on by a regime that needs a distraction, or a new, deadly pandemic, or some other catastrophe (but I'm pessimistic by nature, so that may just be a bit of editorializing on my part). That puts us in january, 2023. But we'll know sooner than that, which way the winds are blowing. We'll likely know which direction the narrative will go by the end of the first week of june. My thinking is the decision about *whether* the party (ostensibly the left, but in actuality the uniparty itself) is experiencing a *genuine fullblown* legitimacy crisis--will be decided just as voting for liberal state primaries begin. This is because it isn't sufficient for the leftwing of the uniparty to maintain control over its radicals, it also has to be sure that the rightwing of the uniparty (RINOS) *also* win enough seats. This means the precinct strategy is likely a political outsider attempting to crack the consensus and force a decision, which puts bannon et al squarely in the accelerationist camp but I digress. We already know the regime is going for maximum pain, maximum control, and the political logic and historic parallels indicate they want to eliminate their rump party (the RNC), and consolidate power, at the same time the RNC is experiencing an internal fracturing between its base, the segment that supports trump, and the moderates disillusioned with the RNC's collusion with the DNC. And that is why the precinct strategy is likely a killshot to a vampire, the RNC, aimed squarely at their heart, the DNC. They're being forced to take drastic measures and come into the sunlight. No one here is our political allies, its just that the mask is being ripped off the mercenaries and the fair-weather paytriots and leftwing fellow travellers in the republican party. With all of this in play, june would be my guess for when the final decision is made about which way things need to go. Hypercynically the election audits are probably a farce, which would hypothetically mean they represent a *walkback*, which supposing thats true, is an indicator the state is afraid of a backlash if they go much further. The deadcat bounce on gas and oil prices says to me some shadow moratorium was placed on any further rises, which is why it decelerated, and then the price became 'sticky', instead of going much lower, or bouncing back to a new high. If thats the case then we can summarize that maybe the collection programs (intelligence agencies mass collecting phone calls and mining for keywords to garner public opinion or rate public outrage/motivation to 'do something') concluded the national sentiment was becoming genuinely dangerous. We can even go so far as to look at the judicial as a mechanical backstop for when the parties go too far. This indicates to me, considering all the push back from the judicial branch, that either they (as an institution, and cultural class) are *at odds* with the fifth branch and its co-opted lacky legislative/executive branch (not likely for a variety of reasons), or they are attempting to implement a 'step back' in the "national program" of progressivism. If thats true, we will likely see a major *moderate* leftwinger, swing "right" in rhetoric, and run for president. Sort of like a rerun of obamas hope-and-change but instead with a distinct "civic nationalist" flavor and an air of "american revival". But the question is whether the state is smart enough to back off, and if the constraints of the scenario give it *room* to. Regardless that doesn't change the dynamics on food. The coming riots in other countries will likely be blamed on "emergent socioeconomic factors too complex to explain", astroturfed political outrages (george floyd and those types of events), and "america pulling up roots and no longer being a force for good in many nations (policing the world), like we once were", even in countries that we had no formal military bases on! The food riots will likely come to america last if those other events don't pop off. Therefore, if anything I've written here is true, the regime will attempt to co-opt these issues to paper-over the real story of 'the big why'. They'll do it before these events can even *begin* to unfold in the u.s and western nations. And if early june is the market for it, and assuming a six month window (not unreasonable. The overnight crisis happened in november 2019-2020, and george floyd died late may, near june), then the earliest we will see astroturfed riots and events in the u.s. will either be **immediately**, no later than late may or mid june, or six months after, around december 2022. Hypothetically winter would be too cold for that, but I see no reason, considering how the canadian protests were done, that those issues can't be ironed out by major NGO/activist/riot orgs. Its actually a *better* opportunity for them paradoxically. Why? People are *more broke* in winter, so they'll be more likely to accept money to riot. People are more desperate. Theres arguably *excuses* for them to have propane tanks (for heaters) present, tanks the anarchists can weaponize. Same thing with alcohol. Same thing with bundling up (to stay warm, but also disguise themselves). It makes smuggling in weapons easier (cops dont like to get out of their cars or spend a lot of time on searches when its cold). It makes tear gas less useful due to snow, rain, and wind. The optics of cops beating people is made worse by people freezing and kneeling in the snow while in cuffs, or being beaten. Everything about it is more dystopian and grim. Tents allow movement, planning, and organization out of the prying eyes of police and informants, disguising the manufacture of weapons and improvising of tools right at the front line. Tents and vehicles can be used to counter-control police movements. Everything about winter provides a massive cover for state astroturf operations to arm and weaponize rioters. "This is the winter of our discontent" could even be the slogan of their "resistance". I see no reason why it wouldn't be. tl;dr We'll probably see the worst we've come to expect either in early-mid june or in december. I'll put a 60% CI on that. A 50% "somewhat confident" rating on it And a 40% "very confident" rating on it. In other words the odds are 50-50 for *either* june or december. For the entire year, I predict a 70% chance of mid scale riots (sub george-floyd). And a 60% chance of george-floyd scale riots or larger.