If something gets to GCM, they tend to throw the book at the poor fucker who ended up there.
"Justice" is done quite differently in the military. You surrender several of your rights when you enlist. You are now subjected to another entire new set of laws, the Uniform Code of Military Justice (UCMJ).
It could be easily argued at general court martial that "This man is being openly insubordinate by refusing to take the shot, and he is encouraging other Marines to be insubordinate. On top of this, he is making videos making political statements while in uniform." This is a fucking shooting matter if it reaches this level of bullshit, and we're talking about the military- it reaches that level of bullshit.
They will argue "If we allow Marines to refuse an order in this case, then they will surely refuse other orders in the future." And that'll probably stick for a dishonorable, or "other-than-honorable" discharge.
for something so petty
It's not petty. Why do you say this? This forced mass human experimentation is far from petty. So When strong men resist it, or call them on their bullshit- they shut them up and screw them. Look at LtCol Scheller- he's still in the fucking brig, and all he did was demand accountability from the RETARDED, CORRUPT, FAT GENERALS who caused the Afghanistan shitshow by abandoning a perfectly good Air Force Base, leading to over a dozen Marines and a Navy Corpsman being killed in the resulting chaos at the civilian airport under siege by the Taliban. The Taliban wouldn't have come within sight of our Air Force Base. But we abandoned it, when we still had thousands of Americans who needed to be evacuated.
This decision is so absurd, so stupid, so wrong, that I have to believe there is something sinister to it. All of the officers on the ground, y'know, the guys who are actually fucking there, had to have been bitching and moaning all during the abandoning process. They had to have warned the generals- "This is going to make getting out into a bloodbath, sir, are you sure we should leave this?" I'm sure there were countless remarks like this made, desperate pleas to the generals making the calls, all ignored. And Scheller calls them out for it- and they throw him into the fucking gulag, not the brig. He's a political prisoner. If you think the military won't DD people for insubordination and other trumped up charges, you're in for a surprise.
from having been in the military, the amount of paperwork required even to chapter out a fatbody was so ridiculous as to be not worth attempting.
calling this "refusal to obey an order" is to abstract away the non-serious, non-deployed, garrisoned nature of the order. people get dishonorables for serious shit, not "refusing to take his medicine"
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