What never seems to make it into any of these articles is the US fucked over Taiwan, kicked it out of the UN and gave it's seat to and seat on the UN Security Council to China. This was all done to fuck over Russia (when relations got bad with China). I don't see how a war with China over Taiwan will hurt Russia in this situation. In fact, quite the opposite. If Russia and China can get those pipelines built in time Russia can stand to make trillions selling energy to China.
China has two choices:
1) Hit Taiwan directly and blitzkrieg it hard, planning to win and take the island within 6 to 10 days. Once China is in and mass troop deployments happen (which I assume would be staged several weeks before the war starts) China is in a position of negotiation and not fighting.
2) Destroy all the US bases in the region with short range missiles and cripple them, leaving open North Korea to take the South and perhaps China also taking the Spratly Island chain. This would be the World War 3 option and I don't see China doing that, but would be ready to do it if need be.
The possible 3rd option is reunification. Downplayed a lot in the western media there are open supporters in the Taiwan government who back a reunification with Beijing under some one country-two systems scam. But what happened in Hong Kong last year would make that plan more difficult. Also, Taiwan and China reunifying would do far more damage to the US that a missile would do and reunification would not be in the US interests at all, especially the weapons industry which would lose trillions.
there is no need for a direct war to taiwan
a blockade will be enough and there is no way USA can unlock it
after a week of no food, no fuel, no nothing getting in and out things will resume as usual, just the separatists will be gone
That's a good observation. I wonder why the Chinese haven't done it yet.
they have not done it, because they are not assholes and/or stupid
everything has a cost, however small
thy will do it when taiwan becomes a credible treat, some USA nuke missiles being deployed
china "peaceful reunification" is a real wish, not empty words
remember, people do NOT care on the color of who is ruling over them, they wish security and a reasonable freedom
At the moment (see how the covid handling is going) I cannot say that there is ANY country that is "democratic", saving maybe some african one, but they have other social issues.
So, the people of taiwan, would not see any difference on being "ruled" now or under china umbrella
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