If I open a bag of 100 beads with an unknown ratio of orange and green beads: - I pull out twenty beads at random, 13 of them orange, 7 of them green - I then pull another twenty beads out with 11 orange and 9 green - I grab a third handful with 14 orange and 6 green - I then take a fourth with 10 orange and 10 green As of this point, I’ve pulled 48 orange and 32 green. This means that the likeliest scenario, and by likeliest I mean almost absolute certainty is that my final handful of beads will be approximately 12 orange and 8 green, as this follows the pattern of the beads that have been accounted for 80% of the bag. However, if the bag is suddenly taken out of the room and handed back again five minutes later, and I pull out 1 orange and 19 green, resulting in a total of 49 orange beads and 51 green beads, would any reasonable person think nothing happened to the bag while it was out of the room? The statistical likelihood of such a drastic turnaround is beyond insane, yet when it comes to the electoral process, the major media outlets want you to believe that’s exactly what happens during the ballot counts that take place in the darkest hours of the night. Only an idiot believes it.