Normally yes, but 0bama came out of nowhere, and was a overnite sensation.
Well they did prop him up massively. Name recognition through brute force like an annoying commercial you still remember 10 years later.
I get what you mean though.
The foreign regimes that have co-opted u.s. parties know that the DNC has no credibility. The DNC is their work horse. They also know the u.s. is gonna go through some serious pain as they take us under to undermine (but not kill) the u.s. dollar--as we transition into multipolar global economics (well under way).
China is still very much reliant on that dollar.
I predict a much weaker dollar going forward (of course everyone does), but oddly I also predict a weak series of wins for the RNC these midterms, and a republican presidency in 2024.
It can't be donald trump because the election system has been fixed in opposition favor, and the chinese won't allow it, because they're still recovering from the fallout of the trade war.
But they DO need an RNC administration to absorb the credibility loss from the next economic crash, because the DNC wouldn't survive it this time. It's not 2008 anymore.
Who is a contender? Cruz? No. His flip-flopping on J6 and weak leadership of texas when ERCOT screwed with them hard, would be his downfall. Tim scott? Nope. Haley? Nope. Too zionist. Too hawkish. Too red. In a 'war time' setting no ones going to vote for a women, not enough to make the finagling with election results seem legit.
Romney? Ain't happening. His star has faded. Mike Pence. Left might endorse him but no one on the right would.
Ron Desantis? Maybe. But then he has an obnoxious nasally voice, enough that he'd be labelled "the squeeker in chief", and while the controversy around him is the same formula that propelled trump to the top, he has no where near the public chops (though political chops are obvious), to survive the meat grinder in DC. Florida. Hes basically a tougher-talking Jeb Bush, moderate in all the right ways, which in this polarized environment, will turn into luke warm support post-nomination.
Any of the small time contenders?
MTG and similar MAGA candidates. No. Too hated by 'moderates' (the establishment), and not enough of a political outsider to occasion the right kind of political opportunism that would gain her allies. Shes isolated.
Josh Hawley? Missouri only had one president in our history. I don't see it happening.
Ron Paul - too old
Rand Paul - too related to his father, a libertarian (hated in DC) with not enough political capital to raise a war chest, short of a trump-tier campaign to rally enthusiasm. Can hold his own in a debate, but doesn't have the connections to 'win'.
Some billionaire that we didn't take seriously before? I mean, it HAS happened. Lets say, Elon Musk? Too weird (look at his wife or girlfriend, or whatever the fuck she was), too divisive in the wrong way, too much of an insider. Too west coast. Retirees and pension people wouldn't vote for him so hes a dead letter candidate from the moment of nomination. He could, if he wanted, possibly, have a chance at the nomination, but I'd put a 10-20% shot at him being selected for president.
So who does that leave?
Someone who worked with trump, but isn't trump. Someone who isn't already a congressman, senator, or sitting president, but someone with serious experience. Someone who has connections and political capital. Maybe a bureaucrat, but high profile and public enough that they are their own 'figure' in the public mind. Someone who is reliable to the regime but doesn't look pro-regime. But ALSO someone who appears tough instead of woke. And understands the necessity of public spectacle, rather than builds their campaign "from the middle-out." Someone who can shed their skin, and occupy a position thats too big for just any one person.
So a bureaucrat basically? But one that is like an outsider, or acts like one, and has an air of being strictly business? But can still talk to the man on the street?
We're not talking chris wray here (lol). Obviously a right wing candidate.
Lets go through the list of cabinet and other officials who worked with or for trump.
Sonny Perdue - too old, but looks tough. Appeals to the midwest. But again, too old, too white. Eugene Scalia - looks like a fucking alien, won't happen. Jeffrey A. Rosen - head of the DOJ, the one persecuting trump? If he pulled a 180 right now, and started the maga route, he could be a comebehind candidate. He obviously has the political capital, if hes in the DOJ. But he has no name recognition Ben Carson - gives the RNC name recognition "a neurosurgeon!" over "the science" cult, and wins the minority vote, but the left would ultimately call him uncle tom and he'd lose critical margin votes just enough to make cheating viable. Not high profile enough to get past the finish line.
Steven G. Bradbury - kind of looks like a fag, and hes from oregon (which may be a plus with the unions). I can't see him winning.
Robert Wilkie - also kind of looks like a fag, but hes the head of veterans affairs, which could either hurt him or help him. Ultimately not enough name recognition.
John Ratcliffe - looks like a fucking actual rat who took human form. Too waxy. Like they cloned romney but something got fucked up in the process. Would lose the west coast (which ironically would make it harder for them to cheat on the margin). Has some name recognition but too much of a DC insider. Nope.
Mark Meadows - actually, yeah, I could see him running a campaign, but it would be a stretch. With the right support, and enough luck, he might get over the line by a few points, but only just. And again, he'd have to be lucky.
Robert Lighthizer - smiles too big, makes him look like a crook. Immediate comparisons to nixon. Nope. Just unknown enough to do something with, but hes more of a stretch than mark meadows.
Gina Haspel - insults about trump make it a no go. Too much distancing to make it viable. But come to think of it, other former cia heads have run for office? Which reminds me..
Mike Pompeo - actually he fits the description I started with pretty solidly. I could see him, in a pinch, being distant enough from trump, but connected enough, to pull off a win by 8-10 points.
Andrew Wheeler - head of the EPA, the agency that was gutted judicially just recently? Doesn't have the name recognition or political capital
The only others I missed were Christopher Miller because he looks like he ate a prune and he still can't poop, Alex Azar because his eyes are too close together like a rat, Wilbur Ross because hes old enough to be a time traveler from pre ww2 come to warn us that we chose the wrong side.
It's gonna be about who is going to play ball with the managed decline and reversion to isolationism for america--without looking like they're playing ball.
I think I covered most of them.
If its gonna be anyone besides trump, it's gonna come down to either desantis (in which case the RNC will lose) or it's gonna be mike pompeo (in which case they have a decent, but not great, shot at winning).
Edit: Theres also David Bernhardt, who has the correct industrial connections, and some political capitol and acumen, but may be too much of an insider and lacks name recognition to boot.
Well they did prop him up massively. Name recognition through brute force like an annoying commercial you still remember 10 years later.
I get what you mean though.
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