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394

The RNC will gain or lose no more than 5-10 seats in congress. Trump or someone endorsed by him will get into office in 2024. Or a 'moderate' left winger. But biden will definitely not have a second term. The u.s. will give preference to AMD over intel. There will be a big shakeup in the media. We will (briefly) go to war with china over taiwan. A supreme court justice, maybe two, will die at the hands of the regime. 2024-2028 will see a much wider swing in congressional and senatorial seats. With both congress and the senate slightly red. The size of the IRS will be normalized.

Very few names (and certainly fewer of significance) will face consequences for the last six years.

Trump will be outed as having been behind some things we thought the left was behind.

The u.s. will step away from israel as an ally.

We will normalize relations with russia

We will disavow any cooperation with Turkey.

There will be large scale political upheaval, social unrest, and military turmoil in saudi arabia and yemen.

We may see significant muslim uprisings in eastern europe.

The bitcoin network will splinter again and face a resurgence in value across all coins as the rouble and petroyuan formalize some ties and the american regime grumbles but accepts some things are outside its control.

Next years harvest will be even worse than this year, with the weather even less predictable in north america and europe--this will be part of the catalyst for normalization of relations with russia.

Terrorism will become a significant new problem in the u.s, even worse than the 90s, as the FBI comes under fire over the next 2 years.

Twitter will face public structural financial problems, as will other tech companies, as the tech bubble doesn't formally pop, but is openly questioned by mainstream financial investors combine with pressure from astroturf retail investor movements.

The american military, or civilian leadership, will openly acknowledge we are no longer ahead in hypersonics, air-superiority, and other areas of combat.

Amnesty will likely not be officially passed, but there will grow, on both sides of the aisle, even as the RNC talks tough, more and more bills and policies and executive decisions that effectively create total amnesty--even more total than what we see today. A complete abandonment of immigration rules. These will be somewhat 'tightened' under red rule, but will be a continual sore spot, that the party 'fails' to do anything about every. single. time.

A new party will rise directly because of this last fact. It will face severe suppression by the secret police, both formally, through raids, and courts, and informally through other suppressive actions by various branches of the administrative state.

Trump will kneecap the teachers unions specifically, with the schedule F mandate, but while greatly crowing about the success of it, it will for the most part lead to only a fraction of the actual firings we anticipated.

There will be some sort of debt or loan forgiveness or debt restructuring for the education system, and likely other types of debt. Wallstreet will simultenously gorge itself on bailouts, and deeply protest 'debt forgiveness'.

That is all.

The RNC will gain or lose no more than 5-10 seats in congress. Trump or someone endorsed by him will get into office in 2024. Or a 'moderate' left winger. But biden will definitely not have a second term. The u.s. will give preference to AMD over intel. There will be a big shakeup in the media. We will (briefly) go to war with china over taiwan. A supreme court justice, maybe two, will die at the hands of the regime. 2024-2028 will see a much wider swing in congressional and senatorial seats. With both congress and the senate slightly red. The size of the IRS will be normalized. Very few names (and certainly fewer of significance) will face consequences for the last six years. Trump will be outed as having been behind some things we thought the left was behind. The u.s. will step away from israel as an ally. We will normalize relations with russia We will disavow any cooperation with Turkey. There will be large scale political upheaval, social unrest, and military turmoil in saudi arabia and yemen. We may see significant muslim uprisings in eastern europe. The bitcoin network will splinter again and face a resurgence in value across all coins as the rouble and petroyuan formalize some ties and the american regime grumbles but accepts some things are outside its control. Next years harvest will be even worse than this year, with the weather even less predictable in north america and europe--this will be part of the catalyst for normalization of relations with russia. Terrorism will become a significant new problem in the u.s, even worse than the 90s, as the FBI comes under fire over the next 2 years. Twitter will face public structural financial problems, as will other tech companies, as the tech bubble *doesn't* formally pop, but is openly questioned by mainstream financial investors combine with pressure from astroturf retail investor movements. The american military, or civilian leadership, will openly acknowledge we are no longer ahead in hypersonics, air-superiority, and other areas of combat. Amnesty will likely not be officially passed, but there will grow, on both sides of the aisle, even as the RNC talks tough, more and more bills and policies and executive decisions that effectively create total amnesty--**even** more total than what we see today. A complete abandonment of immigration rules. These will be somewhat 'tightened' under red rule, but will be a continual sore spot, that the party 'fails' to do anything about every. single. time. A new party will rise directly because of this last fact. It will face severe suppression by the secret police, both formally, through raids, and courts, and informally through other suppressive actions by various branches of the administrative state. Trump will kneecap the teachers unions specifically, with the schedule F mandate, but while greatly crowing about the success of it, it will for the most part lead to only a fraction of the actual firings we anticipated. There will be some sort of debt or loan forgiveness or debt restructuring for the education system, and likely other types of debt. Wallstreet will simultenously gorge itself on bailouts, and deeply protest 'debt forgiveness'. That is all.

(post is archived)

[–] 1 pt

Taiwan is still a question for me. We have 4 carrier groups there at the moment. The British and French have carriers there. Japan has "helicopter destroyers" (what they call their carriers) there with US F-35s and US pilots. Australia has ships there as well. An awful lot of firepower. And it has been there for many months.

[–] 0 pt

An awful lot of firepower. And it has been there for many months.

yes, and awful lot. But has it been there before for many months? Thats the question. How unusual is this configuration of nations, and level of power, compared to past military exercises?

What are the paths and scenarios it can go wrong? What are the reasons any actor involved might want it to 'go wrong'? Xi wanting a war to quell riots in china. America needing a war as a political distraction. Taiwain needing america and china to fight, so Taiwain doesn't have to fight Xi.

And more importantly, are the assumptions behind those reasons real? How likely is the truth of the various details supporting the baseline assumptions underlying these scenarios?

Is Xi really facing instability? Is that related to upcoming party elections? Who, if anyone, would be his challengers? They would be the most likely culprits, supposing the instability is real.

Does america want a war for distractions sake? Or because we are owned by Xi or others, and they intend to have us intentionally lose? Is america attempting actually to project strength while avoiding war for fear of losing or angering our economic 'ally' of china?

Questioning assumptions is no doubt important.

[–] 1 pt

"But has it been there before for many months? Thats the question. How unusual is this configuration of nations, and level of power, compared to past military exercises?"

Yes, many months. This is an unprecedented configuration, especially in this region. Not an exercise. But they have been practicing their coordination. What is very unusual is having US aircraft and pilots on Japanese "carriers".

[–] 0 pt (edited )

Yes, many months. This is an unprecedented configuration, especially in this region. Not an exercise. But they have been practicing their coordination. What is very unusual is having US aircraft and pilots on Japanese "carriers".

I just want to be certain that you're sure this hasn't happened before, and is in fact highly unusual because I'm unfamiliar with the exercises in the pacific so I'm relying on your judgement here.

This isn't me questioning your integrity or veracity, its only about getting a double nod on the solidness of your expertise and/or leads. Purely a formality. I'm grateful for the input so far.

[–] 0 pt

A key piece of the answer is that there is a major struggle between Xi and the CCP. A lot of discussion in China about the loss of the "Mandate of Heaven". Xi is working to place that responsibility on the CCP. He has already hamstrung two of his major enemies. I believe the CCP is pushing for the war. My deep intel predicts a reuniting of Taiwan and China, but as a democracy. Unfortunately my current events intel pipeline and my good friend passed away a couple of months ago.

[–] 0 pt

and my good friend passed away a couple of months ago.

Sorry to hear it.

I could believe it that Xi and the CCP are at odds. If theres a lot of talk about them losing the 'mandate', I wonder what prompted it. Yeah they have strucutural problems, but the everyday citizen still remembers starvation under mao and his follow-alongs. Maybe its because not enough of them do, what with the demographic pyramid being upside down. Maybe the CCP grasps the need to deal with all the excess males--grasps it better than mao.

So what you are saying is mao isnt pro-war, or is delaying, while the CCP wants it sooner or a more definite answer on it?