An awful lot of firepower. And it has been there for many months.
yes, and awful lot. But has it been there before for many months? Thats the question. How unusual is this configuration of nations, and level of power, compared to past military exercises?
What are the paths and scenarios it can go wrong? What are the reasons any actor involved might want it to 'go wrong'? Xi wanting a war to quell riots in china. America needing a war as a political distraction. Taiwain needing america and china to fight, so Taiwain doesn't have to fight Xi.
And more importantly, are the assumptions behind those reasons real? How likely is the truth of the various details supporting the baseline assumptions underlying these scenarios?
Is Xi really facing instability? Is that related to upcoming party elections? Who, if anyone, would be his challengers? They would be the most likely culprits, supposing the instability is real.
Does america want a war for distractions sake? Or because we are owned by Xi or others, and they intend to have us intentionally lose? Is america attempting actually to project strength while avoiding war for fear of losing or angering our economic 'ally' of china?
Questioning assumptions is no doubt important.
"But has it been there before for many months? Thats the question. How unusual is this configuration of nations, and level of power, compared to past military exercises?"
Yes, many months. This is an unprecedented configuration, especially in this region. Not an exercise. But they have been practicing their coordination. What is very unusual is having US aircraft and pilots on Japanese "carriers".
Yes, many months. This is an unprecedented configuration, especially in this region. Not an exercise. But they have been practicing their coordination. What is very unusual is having US aircraft and pilots on Japanese "carriers".
I just want to be certain that you're sure this hasn't happened before, and is in fact highly unusual because I'm unfamiliar with the exercises in the pacific so I'm relying on your judgement here.
This isn't me questioning your integrity or veracity, its only about getting a double nod on the solidness of your expertise and/or leads. Purely a formality. I'm grateful for the input so far.
My friend that passed away was former Marine Intel and was somewhat fluent in Chinese. He would say former and Marine don't go together. He was also a tremendous military historian. Lord I miss our near daily talks.
I have been involved in several naval exercises in one form or another, albeit as the red team usually. They don't look like this. Too long, no land component involved, no beach landings/support for the landings, etc. Just flight ops and burning a lot of heavy fuel oil. Four US carriers in one area usually reflects an elevated DEFCON (possibly 2). Then you add the carriers of three other countries.
An example of a very recent exercise: RIMPAC “Twenty-six nations, 38 surface ships, four submarines, nine national land forces, more than 170 aircraft and approximately 25,000 personnel will participate in the biennial Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) exercise scheduled June 29 to Aug. 4, in and around the Hawaiian Islands and Southern California,” according to the Navy."
Only one carrier participating, Abraham Lincoln. Will likely be returning to the China vicinity fairly soon.
A key piece of the answer is that there is a major struggle between Xi and the CCP. A lot of discussion in China about the loss of the "Mandate of Heaven". Xi is working to place that responsibility on the CCP. He has already hamstrung two of his major enemies. I believe the CCP is pushing for the war. My deep intel predicts a reuniting of Taiwan and China, but as a democracy. Unfortunately my current events intel pipeline and my good friend passed away a couple of months ago.
and my good friend passed away a couple of months ago.
Sorry to hear it.
I could believe it that Xi and the CCP are at odds. If theres a lot of talk about them losing the 'mandate', I wonder what prompted it. Yeah they have strucutural problems, but the everyday citizen still remembers starvation under mao and his follow-alongs. Maybe its because not enough of them do, what with the demographic pyramid being upside down. Maybe the CCP grasps the need to deal with all the excess males--grasps it better than mao.
So what you are saying is mao isnt pro-war, or is delaying, while the CCP wants it sooner or a more definite answer on it?
Mandate problem because of all the flooding and virus deaths and lack of food.
The CCP sees Taiwan as a giant pot of gold. And China is teetering on the edge of financial collapse.
As I explained to the leadership, when I was doing Revolutionary Planning, China was going to either implode or explode because of the one child policy. Explode equals war. The CCP fears the former because the people would wipe them and their families out.
Here is an interesting development in China that has been going on for a while (lie down). https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3153362/what-lying-flat-and-why-are-chinese-officials-standing-it
(post is archived)