Before the Ukrainian conflict, I would have thought that Russia would just easily roll through. I do understand Russia's concern and desire for a buffer against NATO. That said, who would have thought that Russia would run out of tanks and have to press 50-year-old equipment into service, tax their logistics system to the max (run out of trucks delivering gas, food, and ammunition to the front - all on faulty Chinese tires), press conscripts into service, running out of artillery shells - and the list goes on. That was all in very late winter, spring and summer going into the fall. With winter rolling in - it's will be a very cold new grind it out. On the other hand, Russia has so much natural gas and has exhausted storage for it, that they are having to flare it off in their oil/gas fields - actually burning off gas while Germany is shutting down its industry for lack thereof. Plus, they are making more money now selling cheap oil/gas than they were at full price - and their currency is doing well, especially with the threat to back it with gold. Then there is the little matter diamonds. Russia has opened up its diamond vaults and bringing them to market. De Beers is fucked.