It took people with actual aids in the 1990s 4 to 10 years to actually die I would imagine it would take longer now since we have artificial immune cell boosting drugs etc. What's going to start showing up is more use of those drugs. Not immediate deaths so much. Also watch for rising case numbers of suppressed viral diseases like shingles and herpes and pneumonias etc. I think the clotting heart attack and stroke rate will rise faster.