Options Overview | Poal: Say what you want.

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[–] • 1 pt

Well, inflation is coming.

As usual, I disagree with a lot of what CNBC says, but he calls the play out at the end correctly. I don't know that I agree with the reasoning they use, though, however, I think we can all agree everyone is signalling that inflation is coming.

The (((plan))) is to let inflation run without fiddling with interest rates TOO MUCH.

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/12/02/return-of-inflation-how-to-trade-the-10-year-treasury-note.html

So, I think you're on the right track.

Where are you starting? You have a platform you like? Are you already holding some treasury futures? Are you paper trading them?

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[–] • 1 pt

I probably should start paper trading them.

I have a nice sized account on E*Trade and recently added Futures trading but I haven't felt confident enough to place any orders yet.

I understand stocks and options well. I understand the basics on Futures how ticks work and how the margin there works. I'd like to dig deeper into T-Bond specific strategies.

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[–] • 1 pt

(edited )

Well, it's tough to say which strategy will work best for each person, so my recommendation is to learn them all, then settle into what you are most comfortable with and continue to play with other ways.

The easiest way to trade is long term where you buy and just hold it. So, however much you want to invest, set aside a portion there. If you want to be really lazy, check on it in 5 years. You'll probably be fine. Anyone can do that. The rest is just a matter of how much time and motivation you have. The next step is to buy a series of varied bonds to diversify risk and time frame for maturity. That way, in a year, you revisit your bonds, cash out, buy more.

None of that takes very much time, once you've researched and bought in.

Once you have your head around that, you just take it to the next level and increase frequency with shorter and shorter bond buys. That way, you can cycle them everyday.

After you've learned to manage that process, then you start vetting the distressed bonds for diamonds in the rough, much like searching for undervalued equities on the stock exchange.

There's a lot to know, but being good at it makes you a lot more of a gentlemen trader than the average WSB tard.

But, off the top of my head... if I were trying to do what you were doing:

I'd take $100k (hypothetically, for ease of percentages) and put 25% in long term. 25% in medium term. 25% in short term. 25% for very short term trades. Calculate at the end of your week, month, year, which is making you the most money and then adjust. So, for the longer term stuff, you are ending up with $45k, maybe $2k per year, and, ideally, that medium batch is something like $55k where you should be able to do a little better. I'm spitballing. That might be optimistic.

But that $100k would be only a quarter of my investment money, because I'd divide up the rest for other markets. The truth is, I try to squeeze out 1% per day of what I put on the street. So, if I buy $100k of equities in a day, I'm hoping to sell it within 24 hours to get $1,000. My goal is to compound my investment money to the tune of 1% per day, so that in 100 days, my investment has doubled. Building the confidence to get to that takes a lot of time and energy, though.

I view T bonds as a slower, safer way to hold wealth, while using another chunk to play around elsewhere. If I get screwed in the market, the bonds help cushion the blow as they usually move the other way.

Well, it's tough to say which strategy will work best for each person, so my recommendation is to learn them all, then settle into what you are most comfortable with and continue to play with other ways. The easiest way to trade is long term where you buy and just hold it. So, however much you want to invest, set aside a portion there. If you want to be really lazy, check on it in 5 years. You'll probably be fine. Anyone can do that. The rest is just a matter of how much time and motivation you have. The next step is to buy a series of varied bonds to diversify risk and time frame for maturity. That way, in a year, you revisit your bonds, cash out, buy more. None of that takes very much time, once you've researched and bought in. Once you have your head around that, you just take it to the next level and increase frequency with shorter and shorter bond buys. That way, you can cycle them everyday. After you've learned to manage that process, then you start vetting the distressed bonds for diamonds in the rough, much like searching for undervalued equities on the stock exchange. There's a lot to know, but being good at it makes you a lot more of a gentlemen trader than the average WSB tard. But, off the top of my head... if I were trying to do what you were doing: I'd take $100k (hypothetically, for ease of percentages) and put 25% in long term. 25% in medium term. 25% in short term. 25% for very short term trades. Calculate at the end of your week, month, year, which is making you the most money and then adjust. So, for the longer term stuff, you are ending up with $45k, maybe $2k per year, and, ideally, that medium batch is something like $55k where you should be able to do a little better. I'm spitballing. That might be optimistic. But that $100k would be only a quarter of my investment money, because I'd divide up the rest for other markets. The truth is, I try to squeeze out 1% per day of what I put on the street. So, if I buy $100k of equities in a day, I'm hoping to sell it within 24 hours to get $1,000. My goal is to compound my investment money to the tune of 1% per day, so that in 100 days, my investment has doubled. Building the confidence to get to that takes a lot of time and energy, though. I view T bonds as a slower, safer way to hold wealth, while using another chunk to play around elsewhere. If I get screwed in the market, the bonds help cushion the blow as they usually move the other way.

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