That chart from the article is extremely deceptive: it doesn't represent a true mortality rate and uses a special adjusted figure to compare apples to oranges. As always, read to the very end for my recomendation.
You can download the data straight from the source:
Go to tables 2 and 8.
Last week in the data, ending 24-Sep-21, shows number of deaths for unvaccinated vs. vaccinated.
359 deaths for the unvaccinated. 217 for the vaccinated.
They (ONS) use an odd figure for age-standardized mortality rate. They use this methodology to come up with that figure:
Key flaw in that method: it is based on PCR positive tests. It is not an actual mortality rate, it is an Infection Fatality Rate per in-group. What that means is, if you are infected, you're more likely to die than the vaccinated. However, you're less likely to be infected, by far, if you're vaccinated.
Currently, almost 70% of the UK is fully vaccinated. 67% of the population was fully vaccinated on September 21, 2021; the last week in the data collected. But the positive PCR group on the vaccinated is 6 times smaller than the unvaccinated group.
7,637,511 positive PCR tests for the unvaccinated in the UK that week. 359 deaths for the unvaccinated. 1,767,211 positive PCR tests for the vaccinated in the UK that week. 217 for the vaccinated.
What does this data really mean? It means that the unvaccinated are 6 times more likely to get ill than the vaccinated. But the vaccinated are more likely to die if they do get ill (what they call breakthrough cases). However, the vaccinated groups are more likely to be in the higher risk group than the unvaccinated. The unvaccinated group does not include a large portion of the population that are young and healthy (they collect that data for 10 and older). The vaccines were not even approved for those younger than 18 until recently: after the data collection period.
In order to truly compare the two groups, you have to control for age and vaccination status. Then you can compare "apples to apples." But they did this. Table 8 properly compares the 2 groups using the ASMR method.
"Table 8: Age-standardised mortality rates for all deaths and deaths involving COVID-19, England, deaths occurring between 2 January and 24 September 2021"
Unvaccinated ASMR: 849.7 Fully Vaccinated ASMR: 26.2
Correct interpretation of the data: the unvaccinated are 32.5 times more likely to die from COVID-19 than the fully vaccinated.
For you very intelligent readers, you may have noticed I did not include the data of people who just got vaccinated and died or did not get their second dose. If you average those for ALL people in the vaccinated group, you end up with 83 deaths per 100K for ANY in the vaccinated groups. That changes the figure to: the unvaccinated are 10.3 times more likely to die from COVID-19 than the vaccinated groups (by any status). That matches up much more closely with the CDC's findings which has this figure at 9 times more likely to die if you're unvaccinated. The difference between the US and the UK may be due to the greater use of the Moderna vaccine which has a higher performance rate compared to the Astrazeneca vaccine (but the Moderna vaccine has around 5 times the side-effects). Also, the Astrazeneca vaccine is the vaccine most associated with deadly blood clots (what folks around here call the Clot Shot).
I hope this writeup helps people understand how statisticians use statistics to lie and deceive. That article was written by a very dishonest person.
Recommendation: if you are in a COVID-19 at risk group, and do NOT have the antibodies (get tested), you should get vaccinated if you have to interact with the public or want to travel. If you are healthy and lead a good lifestyle, regardless of age, you don't really need to be vaccinated (you can still get it but it's down to a personal choice and gamble with side-effects). Moderna has quite a few side-effects compared to the other vaccines but its performance is significantly better than the rest. I highly recommend you do NOT get the Astrazeneca.
We got one, boys -- a genuine Democrat.
Don't compliment the Democrats like that. They wish I was a Democrat.
(post is archived)