The only thing i tell people when asked this is:
"in 20 years it will either be worth magnitudes more than it is now or nothing"
I don't think anyone disagrees with this, and so you just have to determine what you think these probabilities are, and do what you think is best.
For example, if you think that you will make 5% a year 100% of the time with your s&p500 fund then you are trying to beat 265% (1/4 of a magnitude) in 20 years. if you think that there is a 50% chance that bitcoin will be around in 20 years and we will pretend that it is up 2 magnitude (10000%) then that is 5000%...
If you are looking at short term then yes, it is volatile, and could fall to $5k or whatever, but long term it is either high or low.
imho there are enough billionaires and institutions who have bought in at this point that there is a lot of pressure keeping it from dying.
there are enough billionaires and institutions who have bought in at this point that there is a lot of pressure keeping it from dying.
And to quicken the fall if it seems like it's going to die.
if you think that there is a 50% chance that bitcoin will be around in 20 years and we will pretend that it is up 2 magnitude (10000%) then that is 50000%...
Where'd you get the 5 with 10,000% in making 50,000%
Good catch, fixed , should have been 5k.
in 20 years, it would either be up 10,000% or not. It wouldn't be a return of 5000%
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