Rent. Don't expose yourself to that kind of volitility, leveraged, at that volume. The idea that a house is a good investment fails to recognize how many alternative better investments there are. There is one reason why it makes sense. It's because if instead of paying rent you can accumulate net worth, that's a smart thing to do... but this current environment makes it risky. It's your call on whether or not the risk is going to be worth it, but in general, if the risk is substaintial (as in possibly ruinous) you don't do it no matter what gains are expected, and I'm not even sure it can be said that gains are expected at all.
I did some things others would call risky in crypto and it worked out for me. The difference is that if I lost a chunk of my money I had a job and would still have zero debt. It was zero substaintial risk. For a home you could actually end up underwater. I had zero probability of that. That's the irony of people too afraid to do crypto but willing to buy a home in this market. People's sense of risk is dictated by what they associate with risk rather than any objective thought. They think traditionally buying a home isn't risky, when in reality it definately is.
If someone does buy a home because avoidence of rent still makes sense to them, I would buy the smallest home I could manage to live in even if I had the money for more. You can throw your excess income into a more thought out investment instead. Then you aren't paying rent but you are minimizing your exposure to a market no sane person would want exposure to unless they were actually seeking real estate exposure (because they think they know something). But even the smallest homes people can find are still at a scale that I think it doesn't make sense.
Rule of thumb. If you had 50% odds of doubling your money in a year but face a 5% chance of ruin, you don't do it, because the entire point of money is risk management. The more money you have the less risk you have in your life because you can use money to solve problems. It's all actually a risk calculation. But if you failed to double your money you still wouldn't be at any significant risk, but if you go with it, you now do have risk. Do you see how on our final metric of value it doesn't make sense.
So at 5% of real risk (you're fucked) the expected gains needed to justify it are well past 100% APY. They say you need to accept risk to get reward. One, I would argue that is lazy thinking. And two, usually the smart people who make that calculation segregate risk from substancial risk (the kind that can actually fuck you), and only trade risk of loss (that wouldn't fuck them) against gains. And even then they work very hard to minimize even the non-substaincial risk.
A home IS a good asset and investment if the mortgage can be realistically paid off and unlike rent, inflation makes a mortgage easier to pay off. Renting during hyper-inflation if it happens will not be a good idea.
Problem with buying homes is that everyone buys beyond their means and then complains about being a slave to jew bankers for 50 years.
You said what I wanted to say better than I could say it.
Yes, but low interest rates lead to homes being over valued. Resessions lead to them having less valued. We are at about a low of a real interest rate as we can get, and so if we were to transition from that to resession the change in value is risky. I honestly have no clue what equity OP would be bringing into the picture or what area he's buying in (and thus how expensive), but if he's bringing minimal equity into an expensive home (in some areas that is the option you have), that does have real risk.
I 100% do not believe buying a home to not be worth it in all cases. I just want to counter the assumption it always makes sense and present the type of risk involved and how in many cases the risk to reward ratio really doesn't make sense (everyone's circumstance is different). There was I time I would have said the opposite, that paying rent is always stupid if you can avoid it. But current times make it less than 100% straight forward.
Thanks, great info. Yeah I remember waking up to "a home isn't really an asset" or good investment.
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