Russia is kicking Ukraine arse but in a very restrained fashion.
People assumed that Russia would drive full tit in massive armoured columns across Ukraine.
Nope. They appear to be using small mixed combat groups operating in an very restrained manner.
Also more likely to use artillery than air strikes.
There is a big picture occurring here we are not seeing.
Consider this.
Ukraine has 200000 Deployed troops with the same number in reserve. Russia has attacked with about 60 battalions. 100000 men.
Putin won't take Ukraine. I don't think he has any intention of holding it. He just wants to rattle people and guarantee Ukraine won't join NATO. They're hitting very few civilians. They're leaving the West mostly untouched. I think he just wants to make sure the West doesn't have another foothold at his border. I think we'll see a ceasefire within the next week.
Everybody's getting all crazy and excited that "uKRAINE'S WINNING!!!!!".
Being honest? I think some of the Russian BTG's (Battalion Tactical Groups) that are being used right now are "B Teamers" and not the hardened professional dudes that we know are out there. The guys that have been sent in have been sucking, according to the western media (which I don't believe anyways). Running out of fuel and ammunition is a third world country "junior varsity" sustainment issue that Russians know better. The "playbook" just doesn't add up... Ukrainians still have internet, which they're using to win the information campaign and draw the west and the rest of the world to their side. Russia would have shut down their internet and would have shut the lights off in cities such as Kharkiv and Kyiv.
Look for a huge swarm of troops to pour into Kharkiv this week, which may force Ukraine to pull troops from the Mariupol AO up to reinforce Kharkiv, which abandons the narrow strip of land that exists between the Donbas and Crimea land bridge, allowing Russia to connect the Donbas territory with the Crimean peninsula.
T72 are deployed. No sign of t14.
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