It probably wouldn't have. Maybe. Eventually. Remember that the nuclear bomb program was started with the emphasis on the European theatre, with the intent of using them against Germany. Development on that would have continued anyway. But the Pacific ocean is god-almighty huge. Ships had to cover vast distances just to come within range of each other. They needed aircraft recon just to *find* each other. Battleships main armament had max range of about 16 miles. That's spitting distance in the Pacific. It was a carrier war. The US strategy was based around the "island hopping" campaign, just to be able to secure enough real estate big enough to support B-29's within round-trip flying distance of the Home Islands. If Japan had sunk the carriers, it would have set the US effort back by years, while we built new ones, and while Japan fortified and strengthened it's positions. It's all about the one resource there is never enough of, and that you cannot manufacture. Time.