https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Business_cycle#Classification_by_periods
In 1860 French economist Clément Juglar first identified economic cycles 7 to 11 years long, although he cautiously did not claim any rigid regularity.[8] Later[when?], economist Joseph Schumpeter argued that a Juglar cycle has four stages:
Expansion (increase in production and prices, low interest rates)
Crisis (stock exchanges crash and multiple bankruptcies of firms occur)
Recession (drops in prices and in output, high interest-rates)
Recovery (stocks recover because of the fall in prices and incomes)
Schumpeter's Juglar model associates recovery and prosperity with increases in productivity, consumer confidence, aggregate demand, and prices.
In the 20th century, Schumpeter and others proposed a typology of business cycles according to their periodicity, so that a number of particular cycles were named after their discoverers or proposers:[9]
Economic cycle.svgProposed economic waves Cycle/wave name Period (years)
Kitchin cycle (inventory, e.g. pork cycle) 3–5
Juglar cycle (fixed investment) 7–11
Kuznets swing (infrastructural investment) 15–25
Kondratiev wave (technological basis) 45–60
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The Kitchin inventory cycle of 3 to 5 years (after Joseph Kitchin)[10]
The Juglar fixed-investment cycle of 7 to 11 years (often identified[by whom?] as "the" business cycle
The Kuznets infrastructural investment cycle of 15 to 25 years (after Simon Kuznets – also called "building cycle")
The Kondratiev wave or long technological cycle of 45 to 60 years (after the Soviet economist Nikolai Kondratiev)[11]
Some say interest in the different typologies of cycles has waned since the development of modern macroeconomics, which gives little support to the idea of regular periodic cycles.[12]
Others, such as Dmitry Orlov, argue that simple compound interest mandates the cycling of monetary systems. Since 1960, World GDP has increased by fifty-nine times, and these multiples have not even kept up with annual inflation over the same period. Social Contract (freedoms and absence of social problems) collapses may be observed in nations where incomes are not kept in balance with cost-of-living over the timeline of the monetary system cycle.
The Bible (760 BCE) and Hammurabi's Code (1763 BCE) both explain economic remediations for cyclic sixty-year recurring great depressions, via fiftieth-year Jubilee (biblical) debt and wealth resets[citation needed]. Thirty major debt forgiveness events are recorded in history including the debt forgiveness given to most European nations in the 1930s to 1954.[13]
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