I remember a story about 12 economists being asked what the impact of Brexit would be in the long term in the lead up to the British referendum. I think 10 said that it would have negative long term effects, one said it would ultimately prove positive in the long term, and one said he didn’t know because how could he. The one who said he didn’t know was the only one who was right, if any of the others are ultimately proven right it will be by fluke rather than skill.
But now the same people who can’t tell me what the weather will be like this day next week can state with absolute confidence what the weather will be like in a century. Nobody can ever account for all the variables in long term predictions in any field of discipline, so anybody making long term predictions is either guessing or arrogant enough to think that they can account for all variables.
(post is archived)