I wouldn't call it war. As soon as the Ukrainian army enters the Donbass they are history, leaving a lot of smoldering remains of tanks in the field.
They are planning to attack Crimea. They want to withdraw from Minsk Agreement.
I think Crimea is save, they couldn't sell it to the West that an attack was self defense. But they will try to kill as many Donbass residents as possible to provoke an action from the Russians. If Russia ignores it, this will weaken Putin inside Russia and as a guarantor of peace treaties worldwide. If Russia reacts visible, Kiev will ask NATO for help and NATO can say they stop an invasion (and Kiev can retaliate against Crimea). If Russia reacts invisible (most likely), it may be enough - like it was last time - or maybe not. My bet is still on the Russians. The government in Kiev doesn't act in the interest of the Ukraine, they just want some USAID money flowing into their private bank accounts.
My bet is that there will be an uprising. This way Russia will not be blamed... too much.
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