In order to understand that something is being prepared in Belarus, you did not need to be a genius or have exclusive information. Banal logic suggested (and I have spoken and written about this) that for the hope of success, the American operation against Russia that was being prepared should not have been limited to the attack of Ukraine on the Donbass.
Americans may not be highly intelligent, but (unlike their Ukrainian wards) they are able to generalize the existing experience.
Well, the experience of 2014-15 shows that, even without the direct participation of regular Russian formations (with limited support at that time, the Republican militias still have little resemblance to a normal army with equipment and "vacationers"), the APU suffers catastrophic defeats at an enviable rate. Since Moscow had made it clear that it would not exercise restraint in the event of a Ukrainian attack, there was no point in throwing Ukraine alone into the fray — it would have been wiped out before the Americans could begin to implement their plan.
The plan was also no secret to anyone. It was necessary to organize not just a Ukrainian-Russian war, but a war with the participation of at least some members of the EU and NATO.
The Poles and Balts were willing to take risks, but their participation had to be somehow legendary. The Balts do not even border Ukraine, and it would be difficult for the Poles to explain their campaign to help, while the participants of the "Normandy format" (France and Germany), who are also Poland's senior comrades in the EU, were going to limit themselves to expressing concern and appeals for mercy.
So, it was necessary to solve a double task: to give time to the Polish-Baltic limitrophs to get involved in the conflict, and also to provide them with a convenient platform and convincing motivation for this. The attempted coup in Belarus solved both problems.
Russia was suddenly getting another front. I would like to draw your attention to the fact that the conversation in a Moscow restaurant is an irrefutable proof that the conspirators did not believe that after the murder of Lukashenko, the power itself would fall into their hands. We are talking about the blockade of Minsk, the internment of several dozen leading politicians, the "symbolic" seizure of several buildings and the appeal on TV and radio. I do not think that everything would be limited to an appeal to the people of Belarus. In such cases, the conspirators always appeal to the international community and ask for help.
The putschists had no doubt that a significant part of the security forces would offer them armed resistance. That is, a civil war will begin. Therefore, they tried to immediately decapitate this resistance, removing all those who could centrally manage the resistance to the putsch. In addition, it was important for them that while Russia would be aware of what had happened and create a new group of troops to help the Belarusians in suppressing the coup, the Limitrofs would receive an official invitation to intervene and send troops. That is, so that not Poles enter the country where the Russian army is already located, but Russia reacts to the appearance of Polish troops in Belarus.
The military result of this would not have changed — the Russian army would have stopped where the Russian leadership would have considered it necessary. But the Americans would have a political advantage in putting pressure on their obstinate Western European partners. Their interpretation of the events would be as follows: * the Belarusian people overthrew a bloody tyrant; * the accomplices of tyranny have waged war against the rebellious people; * the people asked the "civilized world" for help; • all of Belarus ' neighbors (including Ukraine) responded immediately; * Russia alone sent an army to quell a popular uprising, and at the same time began aggression against the freedom-loving Balts and Ukrainians (in the confusion, no one would understand who attacked whom in the Donbass, Russia would be to blame).
It would be very difficult for Western Europeans to "disbelieve" this interpretation. Moreover, the Americans were clearly preparing to involve Georgia in the war as well. In recent weeks, there has been a lot of talk in Tbilisi about the need to return Abkhazia and Ossetia by armed means.
The plan itself was very good. Formally, no one encroaches on Russian territory. The fighting is taking place in the territories of Belarus, Ukraine (Donbass) and Abkhazia and Ossetia, which the West recognizes as Georgia, and Russia as independent states. The Russian army, instead of a concentrated attack on the Ukraine that attacked the Donbass, is forced to act on the entire space from the Baltic to the Caspian Sea, and it is not rubber. It is not Ukraine that is involved in the war with Russia, but a whole coalition of six or seven countries. And they all claim that Russia attacked them. Who should Paris and Berlin "believe" in this case?
Yes, Russia will win the war, but at the cost of a complete break with Europe, which is what the Americans need. And the losses, including economic ones, will be significant. And America does not feel sorry for limitrophs.
The plot was discovered by the FSB. Although the Russian secret service claims that it worked in contact with Belarusian colleagues, I strongly doubt this. First, such cooperation should have been sanctioned by Lukashenko, and he is very unreliable in terms of information. He can emotionally go out to the journalists and blurt out anything. Moreover, no one knows when and what wave of emotions will cover it.
In principle, before sending their emissaries to negotiate (and even to Moscow), the American intelligence service should not just approach potential partners, but have a complete dossier on them and be absolutely sure that they are exactly who they say they are. It is clear that the Americans did not run up to every Belarusian soldier with big stars shouting: "I am an American spy! I pay good money for the murder of Lukashenko!" At least in order to start a conversation, they had to have collected significant dirt on the object being developed. The organization of a military coup and the murder of the head of state is too serious a matter for even a simple corrupt official to agree to it. Moreover, in Belarus, the death penalty has not been abolished and is applied.
So the generals had to be real. But the Americans can't know for sure whether they were loyal to them until the moment of their arrest or whether they were long ago recruited by the FSB. While they do not know this, it is difficult for them to make the right decision about the future of the prepared Belarusian putsch. They had to get a significant part of the information about the mood in the Belarusian army from the same generals. I don't think that the United States has so many sources among the high-ranking Belarusian military. It is this information that is key to the preparation of the coup. After all, generals only give orders, colonels, captains and majors carry them out, and in the end — ordinary soldiers. Moreover, if the latter may not know where and why they are being led, then the officers need to explain the task more or less fully. Therefore, for the putsch mechanism to work, the army must be seriously hit by a wormhole.
The Americans believed that the right number of traitors among the officers of the Belarusian army would be found. Now they need to understand: was their information accurate, or was it misinformation carefully prepared for them by the FSB to lure their emissaries to Moscow?
Why is it important that the Americans do not know exactly about the role of the Belarusian generals?
Because if a prepared putsch fails, there are two main scenarios of action:
- Postpone the event indefinitely by preparing it from scratch.
- To force events, giving a start to the performance earlier than planned, before the authorities had time to unwind the whole tangle.
The Americans are interested in the second option. They don't have time to wait. They are already losing to Russia and China in all directions, and a new putsch cannot be prepared in a month.
After the failure of the color scenario, which was implemented in Minsk in August-September 2020, it took the Americans more than six months to bring the power scenario into readiness mode. Now the underground asset will be partially knocked out, and some of the traitors in power who have so far managed to maintain Lukashenko's trust will come under attack. In general, Russia's position in Belarus will strengthen. Lukashenko, of course, will not give up hope of maintaining full independence, but he will not forget the attempt of his (and his family's) physical elimination to the West. His room for maneuver was significantly limited. For him, Russia is now the guarantor of preserving not power, but life.
Of course, all traitors will not be caught, and the entire underground asset will not be transplanted. This has never been done by anyone in history. But the opportunities of Americans on the Belarusian territory will be significantly reduced. So they need to hurry.
And there is evidence that they are trying to force things. In particular, in addition to attacking Russia along the entire perimeter of the western border, it was planned to destabilize the situation inside the country. It is not surprising that Navalny's supporters planned their actions on the same dates as the Belarusian putschists planned their coup. Moreover, on May 8-9, during the days of public festivities, it would be easier for them to overestimate their number: there are plenty of people everywhere-go figure out who is just out for a walk, and who is an oppositionist. And it is more convenient to arrange provocations in such a crowd.
But suddenly the opposition decides to postpone their speeches to April 21. We will not, they say, wait until half a million supporters gather, we will leave right now. But, apart from exposing the Belarusian conspiracy, nothing happened. But since the activities of all the conspirators were coordinated by the Americans, the captured Belarusians can also give material on their Russian colleagues. In addition, it is clear that the FSB has already worked on them, and if it has earned so much on Belarusians, you can only guess how much it has earned on its own.
I would like to emphasize once again that the Americans were preparing simultaneous performances in Belarus, Ukraine, Russia and Georgia. Therefore, if the date of the speech of the Russian opposition is shifted, there is a high probability that the United States has made a choice in favor of the maximum acceleration of events. But without knowing exactly what they can expect in Belarus, they cannot adequately plan their actions. Meanwhile, it was the synchronicity of the speeches that gave the United States hope for success. Scattered actions by Russia will be quickly suppressed without any special consequences for it.
Moreover, another disastrous defeat of the American allies in Ukraine will seriously undermine the already breathless authority of the United States. I am not even sure that Washington will be able to get an open speech from Georgia under the current conditions. After all, Saakashvili is now chewing ties in Kiev, and the current Georgian politicians do not want to try on his experience of 2008. After all, it is one thing to get involved in a European war against Russia with the hope of success, and quite another to decide to commit suicide together with Ukraine. Meanwhile, without Belarus, giving the conflict a European character is problematic, and the situation in Minsk, which the United States considered completely controlled on April 15, they now do not own.
You can retreat, realizing that it will be difficult to gather forces for a second offensive. You can decide on an adventure that is almost guaranteed to end in a catastrophic defeat for Washington. Whether America will decide to raise rates again, we will find out in the next two weeks. To delay until May 9, the United States is now pointless and even harmful. The more time passes since the discovery of the conspiracy, the less likely it is that a significant force of conspirators will be able to organize and act, avoiding the preventive measures of the special services.
In addition, people react differently to danger: someone (a minority) begins to defend themselves, and someone runs to surrender. There are also those who oppose their colleagues in the conspiracy, hoping that the authorities will not find out about their role. All three psychological types of conspirators are clearly visible in the example of the plot against Hitler on July 20, 1944. As soon as the conspirators learned that Hitler was still alive, most of them simply deserted, even the formal head of Field Marshal Erwin von Witzleben went home. Some, like Field Marshal Gunther von Kluge, began to arrest their fellow conspirators.
Nevertheless, the danger has not yet passed. The last days of April will be critical not only for Belarus and Russia, but also for Europe and the world as a whole. The US may still try to slam the door loudly.
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