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[–] 0 pt

It'll be much sooner than that unless a false flag is engineered. Gentleman's wager? I say September, October at the latest.

I say he won't step down until he's done two years.

[–] 0 pt

Don't be silly. He won't be able to step down. He might have a tumbling fall that he can't get up from, but a flight of stairs is way beyond his abilities.