I don’t even have to follow the link because I looked at Briand’s presentation carefully. First, the article says the death rate of elderly people didn’t go up. That is false and it isn’t what briand says. She says elderly deaths did not change much as a portion of deaths overall!
But overall deaths were up ~17% since march according to her own data from March to September, over the previous 3 year average— this was all CDC data she used. She did not contest this. She argues that because of shifting demographics there is an approximately 2% natural increase in deaths from year to year, making the 3 year average about 4% under what would be an expected “normal” year. Which means there is really only a 13% increase above “normal”. Of course she was using months with incomplete data and that was several months ago, the real number of deaths for 2020, adjusting for a 2% increase will be at least 15% above the “expected” according to her reasoning.
She make another dishonest arguement in my opinion. She argues that the difference in weekly deaths from the previous 3year average of deaths for that week is within a predictable range of variation for a normal distribution based on earlier observed variation. But this is legerdemain. The probability of 30 weeks in a row of >+10% increase is infinitesimal in a normal variation and can only be explained by a signal change. She knows that but she’s playing tricks. I know the tricks. Ive played them myself.
Real influenza deaths recorded by the CDC,( listed as contributary cause of death on death certificates by doctors and coroners) are only around 5 to 15 thousand a year. ( the CDC has been try to fear monger with a flu death estimate based on total fuckery— you can take my word for it or I can prove it to you— of around 60,000 or 80,000 deaths, based on assumptions they pulled out their assholes and I can make mince meat out of in a nanosecond. ) Estimated flu deaths is the unfounded bullshit number they’ve tried to scare people into getting flu shots with. Real flu deaths are low and they are recorded, not estimated. Recorded flu deaths are at 6000 so far this year and a third of them occur in December and are not entered in to the system yet. Looks like a typical flu year so far not including covid deaths.
CDC data for any week is about 25% incomplete or more within the last 8 weeks. We wont have complete 2020 death count data for at least 8 weeks. But recorded deaths are already > than 10% over last year with probably near to 10% data outstanding. Last year was ~2.8 million deaths. We are already at 3.1 I think. That difference will increase. It could be as high as 3.5?
Im telling you Ive looked at the data. Ive crunched the numbers.
Sounds like you have. I'll have to look at this again with what you've highlighted in mind. I like how you threw a flu redpill in there.
Lol. I did data analysis so I always go to the numbers. It’s so easy to lie with statistics. The leftists have used statistical fuckery to lie about drugs like hydroxychloroquine and ivermectin. The studies are ridiculous but no one really reads them. The just accept the sound bite takeaway delivered up by CNN or whoever. “Duh it’s settled science”. Nobody reads the studies. Not even these fucking doctors for the most part.
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