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Hi all, as per the title.

I don't have access to options, but I can buy ETFs, and more importantly, inverse ETFs.

If I bought a week ago, I would have made 25% returns.

My suspicion is that this virus is a doomsday bio-weapon that will kill many, many people, and will spread (based on the PRC spread) throughout the US and the rest of the world over a period of about a month or two. There will be no vaccine. I think a huge crash is coming.

What are the best inverse ETFs to buy, that aren't already priced in?

Hi all, as per the title. I don't have access to options, but I can buy ETFs, and more importantly, inverse ETFs. If I bought a week ago, I would have made 25% returns. My suspicion is that this virus is a doomsday bio-weapon that will kill many, many people, and will spread (based on the PRC spread) throughout the US and the rest of the world over a period of about a month or two. There will be no vaccine. I think a huge crash is coming. What are the best inverse ETFs to buy, that aren't already priced in?

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[–] • 1 pt (edited )

As far as the inverse ETF's mentioned by PSQ comes to mind. Inverse ETFs will loose money over time in a flat market due to the underlying statistics of random fluctuations, on top of any fees and the fact that they hold derivative. Even if the inverse ETF was ideal say the underlying stock/indicator goes from 100 to 105, a 5% increase, then back down from 105 to 100, a slightly less than 5% decrease. An inverse ETF will drop 5% from 100 to 95, but then it's slightly less than 5% increase is multiplied by 95, so it returns to a value a little less than 100. Thus, one should only hold inverse, 2x or 3x ETFs if one is confident in the prediction. One can also use options. As far as inverse ETF's the 2x and 3x suffer more greatly from the above problem than a 1x inverse ETF. All that being said, I regard them as valuable tools. If you are betting on a move, the Nasdaq is more volatile, and PSQ is an inverse Nasdaq ETF. Apart from a couple items I have offset with PSQ, PSQ is my only holding.

If you desire great volatility, you may want to google a 2x or 3x inverse ETF. PSQ has risen with the market drop, as have all inverse funds, but I think the valuations are not cheap, even without a likely plague. An economy needs happy people to shop and travel. Even a small amount of fear is a major problem. A hit to China is a major problem. I went bearish about a month ago and lost money as it went up. I see no reason the Nasdqa couldn't fall 50% from here.

If you doubt the severity, go to Bitchute.com and search for Wuhan. It is horror film level and the first hand video shows something far worse than is being reported. I think it is an escaped bioweapon.

Bitcoin or other crypto may be useful as well.

[–] • 1 pt

Thanks man.

I ended up going with 3x inverse Dow.

I think the wuflu is worse than the market thinks it is. People are going to be stuck at home for weeks watching TV because quarantines are coming.

[–] • 0 pt

Nasdaq will like move more than the Dow. Friend recommended DRIP, I recall he said it was a 3x inverse oil price fund.

[–] • 0 pt

Was not fun to hold today, but should work. Esp in April.

[–] • 0 pt

An economy needs happy people to shop and travel.

This

The happy part is somehow optional for a vital minimum, but if you lack the rest on the right of that part of the line, you don't get the beginning of it, that's a fucking given

[–] • 0 pt (edited )

If I had the ability to, I'd be using options and all the tools the strategies they offer. Unfortunately, I'm Australian, and Australians charge an arm and a leg to do anything financial, so unless you've got a few hundred k to play with, it doesn't really work out after fees, I'm trading US stocks/etfs only because there are virtually zero fees.

I've done a fair bit of research regarding the wu flu, and it doesn't look good.

I know that inverse ETFs for energy are up, for a lot of reasons, including much less travel, and trade from China grounding to a halt. But that's now "priced in". I'm betting on a massive quarantine, and everything not food related shutting down, like what China has done.

Edit: the main thing I cannot ignore is that PRC China has sacrificed its GDP over this and shutdown everything. PRC China doesn't give a fuck about a few dead people. If the CCP is going all out, it must be pretty fucking horrible. As in it could trigger a revolution or war, horrible.