I always try to lowball numbers to quell my own gut reaction. Sort of like learned incredulousness. Which is why I went with the official numbers, instead of the "10x" factor and that has caused me to miss something important. I cannot believe I had a blindspot like that snowman.
If the numbers are in fact 10x higher, then the numbers would already be way worse in the u.s, even by the official statistics, or the lag time for reporting is biting us in the ass (because it'd be hard to censor that sort of thing here in the u.s, like you wrote). So either way we'll know in two weeks time which of the scenarios is true. If we start seeing a a dozen more people in the u.s. sick, then 1. we didnt catch it in time through screening, 2. the numbers in the u.s. have been suppressed or understimated by the authorities. And that outcome will tell us scenario 1, 2, or 3.
If we're still low on the numbers in 2 weeks, and the u.s. media is pushing calm, that indicates a cover up of something bad, especially ahead of stock rumbles.
If we're still low on the numbers in 2 weeks, and the u.s. media is pushing panic, that indicates a hoax, with or without market indicators.
If we're high on the numbers in 2 weeks, and the u.s. media is urging calm, and the market is sounding alarm bells then we'll know it's real.
If we're high on the numbers in 2 weeks, and the u.s. media is urging calm, and the market isn't crashing, wait a couple of weeks, and if it still isn't crashing then it's something overblown.
If we're high on the numbers in 2 weeks, and the u.s media is urging panic, and the market is still high, the disease could be real OR a hoax but the market is prepared to crash.
If we're high on the numbers in 2 weeks, and the u.s. media is urging panic, and the market is in turmoil, the disease is likely real but by then it's too late.
Did I cover all possible combinations of the outlined variables?
I don't expect the market to react until sales are affected due to quarantines, assuming it gets that bad here. The market is due to crash anyways as it has been 13 years since the last one and the normal cycle is roughly every 7 years as that's how long most business loans are. Bad businesses would default and go out of business and the good ones would remain making the economy stronger. The problem with that is the feds get involved and bailed out bad businesses.
But I digress...
Whats the lag time between the market becoming aware of affected sales?
Because sales are already being affected.
Witness: 'american' auto manufacturers experiencing a parts shortage.
Maybe I'm misunderstanding.
Whats the lag time between the market becoming aware of affected sales?
That's the answer we are about to find out. I don't know how much of each item that we can buy is in the pipeline, but I figure by March we should start seeing shortages. That's when sales will take a hit. April could be horrible for the markets assuming quarterly reporting happens in April for a publicly traded company.
Of course, you can't just shut a factory down for a month or two and then turn it back on and have stuff on the shelves in two weeks. Those factories have been running for months or years on end to meet the demand for the products they produce. Assuming everything fires right back up (kek, yea right, that sounds like a miracle) it could be back to normal in 3 months? We'll see just how many manufacturing jobs were brought back in the meantime, I don't think it will be enough though.
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