I don't expect the market to react until sales are affected due to quarantines, assuming it gets that bad here. The market is due to crash anyways as it has been 13 years since the last one and the normal cycle is roughly every 7 years as that's how long most business loans are. Bad businesses would default and go out of business and the good ones would remain making the economy stronger. The problem with that is the feds get involved and bailed out bad businesses.
But I digress...
Whats the lag time between the market becoming aware of affected sales?
Because sales are already being affected.
Witness: 'american' auto manufacturers experiencing a parts shortage.
Maybe I'm misunderstanding.
Whats the lag time between the market becoming aware of affected sales?
That's the answer we are about to find out. I don't know how much of each item that we can buy is in the pipeline, but I figure by March we should start seeing shortages. That's when sales will take a hit. April could be horrible for the markets assuming quarterly reporting happens in April for a publicly traded company.
Of course, you can't just shut a factory down for a month or two and then turn it back on and have stuff on the shelves in two weeks. Those factories have been running for months or years on end to meet the demand for the products they produce. Assuming everything fires right back up (kek, yea right, that sounds like a miracle) it could be back to normal in 3 months? We'll see just how many manufacturing jobs were brought back in the meantime, I don't think it will be enough though.
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