Too bad the official numbers are bullshit based on actions being taken. We may not know what's going on in China, but if it was here in the US, Washington would be exploding right now and so far it isn't and as slow as social media is to censor something like this, we'd know. The incubation period is coming to an end for Orange and Los Angeles County and so far nothing. We don't even know how easily transmittable it is other than it looks like you can't become infected by sitting next to someone on a flight.
A lot of your speculation could be wrong because China's not telling the truth. A lot of what we suspect is accurate is speculation, because China's not telling the truth. I'm not saying the feds will be telling us the truth, but it will be a lot harder to hide the truth here.
You left out a scenario, this could be a test to see how effective social media censoring is in the West. If it is this one, then we're already fucked and putting brown pants on won't matter.
And it will always be scenario 3, governments won't let a crisis like this go to waste.
Too bad the official numbers are bullshit based on actions being taken.
If the official numbers are bullshit as you say (and of course they are), then the logical conclusion is they're too fucking low, so the implication here is much worse.
Just because washington isn't falling to pieces right now, doesn't mean it won't be in a week. Hopefully you're right.
The scenario for testing the effectiveness of social media censoring isn't mutually exclusive. A lot of the numbers I cited I took from officials sources, which we know is inaccurate, but which we also know don't account for lag time (aren't up to date) and are likely underplayed rather than overplayed. Although in retrospect, china did try to use the outbreak as an excuse to weasel out of the trade deal and buy time.
I forgot something you left out, TDS.
The MSM will absolutely make it look worse here than what it actually is in the hopes that it wrecks the economy and gets POTUS booted out of office. So the MSM has tons to gain from a corona virus outbreak in the USA.
Exactly, they wouldn't be beyond spreading it, if it's even real.
The kicker is whether we're all just being played by china, bill gates, et al, etc, which is why I'm watching media attitude and what the market believes NOW, versus in two, three, or four weeks. Those are the indicators and contraindications of whats actually going on I think.
If the official numbers are bullshit as you say (and of course they are), then the logical conclusion is they're too fucking low, so the implication here is much worse.
I'm certain it is at least 10x worse based on their actions. I wouldn't be surprised if there's millions sick and up to 100,000 (or more) dead from it. The initial numbers (early to mid-January) are stupid because you have more people sick in a city of 11 million people than what they were reporting and they were quarantining.
Just because washington isn't falling to pieces right now, doesn't mean it won't be in a week. Hopefully you're right.
I'm fairly confident in my speculation regarding Washington. Their Patient 0 arrived the 15th of January. If the incubation period is 14 days, infected wave 1 would be showing symptoms and wave 2 would be about to start.
I always try to lowball numbers to quell my own gut reaction. Sort of like learned incredulousness. Which is why I went with the official numbers, instead of the "10x" factor and that has caused me to miss something important. I cannot believe I had a blindspot like that snowman.
If the numbers are in fact 10x higher, then the numbers would already be way worse in the u.s, even by the official statistics, or the lag time for reporting is biting us in the ass (because it'd be hard to censor that sort of thing here in the u.s, like you wrote). So either way we'll know in two weeks time which of the scenarios is true. If we start seeing a a dozen more people in the u.s. sick, then 1. we didnt catch it in time through screening, 2. the numbers in the u.s. have been suppressed or understimated by the authorities. And that outcome will tell us scenario 1, 2, or 3.
If we're still low on the numbers in 2 weeks, and the u.s. media is pushing calm, that indicates a cover up of something bad, especially ahead of stock rumbles.
If we're still low on the numbers in 2 weeks, and the u.s. media is pushing panic, that indicates a hoax, with or without market indicators.
If we're high on the numbers in 2 weeks, and the u.s. media is urging calm, and the market is sounding alarm bells then we'll know it's real.
If we're high on the numbers in 2 weeks, and the u.s. media is urging calm, and the market isn't crashing, wait a couple of weeks, and if it still isn't crashing then it's something overblown.
If we're high on the numbers in 2 weeks, and the u.s media is urging panic, and the market is still high, the disease could be real OR a hoax but the market is prepared to crash.
If we're high on the numbers in 2 weeks, and the u.s. media is urging panic, and the market is in turmoil, the disease is likely real but by then it's too late.
Did I cover all possible combinations of the outlined variables?
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