If the official numbers are bullshit as you say (and of course they are), then the logical conclusion is they're too fucking low, so the implication here is much worse.
I'm certain it is at least 10x worse based on their actions. I wouldn't be surprised if there's millions sick and up to 100,000 (or more) dead from it. The initial numbers (early to mid-January) are stupid because you have more people sick in a city of 11 million people than what they were reporting and they were quarantining.
Just because washington isn't falling to pieces right now, doesn't mean it won't be in a week. Hopefully you're right.
I'm fairly confident in my speculation regarding Washington. Their Patient 0 arrived the 15th of January. If the incubation period is 14 days, infected wave 1 would be showing symptoms and wave 2 would be about to start.
I always try to lowball numbers to quell my own gut reaction. Sort of like learned incredulousness. Which is why I went with the official numbers, instead of the "10x" factor and that has caused me to miss something important. I cannot believe I had a blindspot like that snowman.
If the numbers are in fact 10x higher, then the numbers would already be way worse in the u.s, even by the official statistics, or the lag time for reporting is biting us in the ass (because it'd be hard to censor that sort of thing here in the u.s, like you wrote). So either way we'll know in two weeks time which of the scenarios is true. If we start seeing a a dozen more people in the u.s. sick, then 1. we didnt catch it in time through screening, 2. the numbers in the u.s. have been suppressed or understimated by the authorities. And that outcome will tell us scenario 1, 2, or 3.
If we're still low on the numbers in 2 weeks, and the u.s. media is pushing calm, that indicates a cover up of something bad, especially ahead of stock rumbles.
If we're still low on the numbers in 2 weeks, and the u.s. media is pushing panic, that indicates a hoax, with or without market indicators.
If we're high on the numbers in 2 weeks, and the u.s. media is urging calm, and the market is sounding alarm bells then we'll know it's real.
If we're high on the numbers in 2 weeks, and the u.s. media is urging calm, and the market isn't crashing, wait a couple of weeks, and if it still isn't crashing then it's something overblown.
If we're high on the numbers in 2 weeks, and the u.s media is urging panic, and the market is still high, the disease could be real OR a hoax but the market is prepared to crash.
If we're high on the numbers in 2 weeks, and the u.s. media is urging panic, and the market is in turmoil, the disease is likely real but by then it's too late.
Did I cover all possible combinations of the outlined variables?
I don't expect the market to react until sales are affected due to quarantines, assuming it gets that bad here. The market is due to crash anyways as it has been 13 years since the last one and the normal cycle is roughly every 7 years as that's how long most business loans are. Bad businesses would default and go out of business and the good ones would remain making the economy stronger. The problem with that is the feds get involved and bailed out bad businesses.
But I digress...
Whats the lag time between the market becoming aware of affected sales?
Because sales are already being affected.
Witness: 'american' auto manufacturers experiencing a parts shortage.
Maybe I'm misunderstanding.
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