Okay, so assuming there really was only one person in the u.s. infected jan 21st (report of the first incidence) Assuming an r0 of 2.2, it would work out to 138 infected in the u.s, which is relatively in line with the "infected are x10 the official number ". Assuming doubling time is 2 days. The 5-7 day range for doubling seems like bullshit, unless 1. the u.s. amount of infected is significantly wrong, 2. r0 is way off whats reported or known. Remember, people can be symptomless anywhere from 3-14 days, with an average of 5. With a fatality rate of 2%, r0 of 2.2, we should have already seen news reports of between 1-2 deaths, at least suspicious deaths. These would likely be asian, male, and likely over 40. which indicates either fatality rates are way overblown for the u.s, or something else. With an r0 of 1.5, that works out to 11.39 infected on as of today, Feb. 4th. At a 2% fatality rate we have a 50% probability of reading about the first reported death(s) by Feb. 8th, and 100% probability of the first death on Feb. 12th. By march first, that works out to 2,216-2,217 infected, and 44-45 dead, assuming again r0 is 1.5 (likely wrong), infected numbers are accurate (they're almost certainty higher), and that fatality rate is accurate at 2% (unlikely, and highly variable from what I've seen). Like others have said, unless I've missed something, this is a bad, but overblown flu.