Put a time limit on your prediction. When it doesn't happen within that time limit don't just put it in a memory hole, admit you were wrong. This is the only way to gain experience.
Put a time limit on your prediction. When it doesn't happen within that time limit don't just put it in a memory hole, *admit you were wrong*. This is the only way to gain experience.
No. The fact that I don't know how long it will take us to crash does not alter the fact that we are crashing.
No. The fact that I don't know how long it will take us to crash does not alter the fact that we are crashing.
So your theory is unfalsifiable.
So your theory is unfalsifiable.
Nope. If grocery stores return to normal and their shelves fill up despite the lockdowns continuing then I will have been wrong and the lockdowns are not causing unavoidable disruption to our supply chain and production.
If you jump out of a plane at an unknown altitude then you won't know how long it'll take you to hit the ground, but it'd be incredibly stupid to wait 20 seconds and conclude you're not falling anymore.
Nope. If grocery stores return to normal and their shelves fill up despite the lockdowns continuing then I will have been wrong and the lockdowns are not causing unavoidable disruption to our supply chain and production.
If you jump out of a plane at an unknown altitude then you won't know how long it'll take you to hit the ground, but it'd be incredibly stupid to wait 20 seconds and conclude you're not falling anymore.
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