Sen. Kyrsten Sinema has angered progressive Democrats for blanching at the $3.5 trillion price tag of her party’s social-welfare proposal, to the point where some leading liberal voices are calling for a primary challenge against her in 2024. But the enigmatic freshman from Arizona understands her state’s politics better than the talking heads, and her moderate positioning has effectively positioned her well for reelection in three years. By holding the line on excessive spending and opposing repeal of the filibuster, Sinema has spent some of her political capital on the Left to win over a critical mass of independents, as well as generate goodwill from Republicans. A newly released poll conducted by OH Predictive Insights, conducted from Sept. 7-12, shows how unique her political coalition of support is in these tribal times. Her net favorability is plus-7 (46 percent favorable, 39 percent unfavorable) in a state that President Biden carried by a single point. While just 56 percent of Democrats view her favorably, she holds an above-water (plus-6) rating with independents and unusually high 40 percent favorability rating among Republicans. All told, her overall favorability rating is a notch higher than newly elected Sen. Mark Kelly. He polls between 43 and 44 percent against all Republicans in next year’s Senate race. His net favorability rating is plus-4, with 47 percent viewing him favorably and 43 percent viewing him unfavorably. Angry progressive pundits are convinced that Sinema’s independent positioning will doom her in a Democratic primary. That is a total misread of her political situation. If Sinema was a true roadblock to Biden’s agenda, she wouldn’t be at the negotiating table. But she’s cannily positioned herself, along with Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia, as a check against progressive excess. In the end, there’s a strong chance she’ll end up voting for a pared-back social spending bill that’s less expensive than the current progressive demands—legislation that Biden will end up championing. Left-wing activists will agitate against her, but most average Arizona Democrats won’t remember her legislative wrangling three years from now. In fact, her voting record is 100 percent aligned with Biden, according to FiveThirtyEight’s vote ratings, which demonstrates that she ultimately is a team player in the end. And at the same time, her maverick branding has earned her priceless goodwill from the numerous swing voters in Arizona that aren’t in lockstep behind Biden. She doesn’t need much crossover support to win a second term. She just needs to pick off a small slice of moderate John McCain voters (she won 12 percent of Arizona Republicans in 2018, according to exit polling) and continue to maintain support from independents. Incumbency will also boost her standing relative to her first campaign, though she’ll likely be running in a more challenging political environment. Meanwhile, the more you game out her political situation, the notion of a serious primary challenger emerging against Sinema is fanciful. Even as she ticks off the base, she still maintains majority support from registered Democrats. Furthermore, the Senate is likely going to be very closely divided after next year’s midterm elections, making Arizona an absolute must-hold seat for Democrats in 2024, whether they’re trying to hold the majority or regain it after a 2022 loss. The appetite for national Democrats tolerating an intraparty feud in such a crucial state isn’t at all plausible. With the state’s late primary date and newly competitive politics, it would be akin to a suicide mission. On top of that, there are the historical obstacles. Winning a primary against a sitting senator is extremely rare. Since 1992, only two Democratic senators have failed to secure their renomination: Pennsylvania’s Arlen Specter in 2010 (a lifelong Republican who switched parties) and Joe Lieberman in 2006 (who ended up winning reelection as an independent). The hurdles for challengers, from overcoming party leaders’ opposition to the pragmatic nature of the Democratic electorate, are nearly insurmountable. Arizona is one of the few states where persuadable moderates typically decide elections. It’s not a coincidence that the state kept reelecting McCain despite all the right-wing opposition he engendered. For all the extremist politicians generating outsized attention in the state, it’s the pragmatists that end up winning. Sinema is following in that same mold. She’s taking the calculated short-term risk of intraparty backlash in service of her longer-term goal of boosting her political profile for a general election. And not only is Sinema bolstering her own political brand back home, she’s helping insulate the moderate Democratic senators up for reelection next year. Despite signs of vulnerability, Kelly hasn’t had to face many questions about his position on the spending bills because Sinema has stolen the spotlight. Other vulnerable Democrats up for reelection, like Sen. Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire and Sen. Raphael Warnock of Georgia, have largely been able to avoid the tough questions for now about the controversial $3.5 trillion social-spending bill. Given how the rural-state bias of the Senate advantages Republicans, Democrats should be praising Sinema for her ability to crack the political code back home in a red-leaning swing state. It’s a sign of how far the party has drifted ideologically that so many leading partisan voices consider her a pariah.