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[–] 0 pt

Seems to me that the picture alone supplies probable cause to the ethics complaint against him

First off, I can't believe I'm defending Josh Hawley. I think sometimes I take the whole 'two sides to every story' thing too far.
Secondly, Hawley is certainly not alone (pjmedia.com) in raising a fist on camera or calling for unrest (rt.com). If raising a fist is now an act of incitement, America is doomed for sure.

[–] 0 pt

probable cause is a very low thresh hold in the law. When he publicly goes after vote switching machines, it fits into the ethics complaint filed against him:

"Cruz and Hawley continued to amplify the claims of fraud that they likely knew to be baseless and that had led to violence earlier that day. . . Violent action provoked by false fraud claims remains a persistent threat."

[–] 0 pt

...claims of fraud that they likely knew to be baseless

Assuming that Hawley believed the claims to be baseless is not a good legal strategy.

[–] 0 pt

By objecting to the certification, Cruz, and Hawley, "lent legitimacy" to the violent mob of pro-Trump supporters who stormed the Capitol, the letter sent to incoming Senate Ethics Committee Chairman Chris Coons, D-Del., and Vice Chairman James Lankford, R-Okla., said. The letter, spearheaded by Rhode Island Democrat Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, asked for an investigation into the two members to "fully understand their role" as it relates to the attack on the Capitol and to determine whether disciplinary action is needed.

https://www.npr.org/2021/01/22/959499144/senate-democrats-file-ethics-complaint-against-cruz-hawley-after-capitol-riot

Seeking an investigation appears appropriate.