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The RNC will gain or lose no more than 5-10 seats in congress. Trump or someone endorsed by him will get into office in 2024. Or a 'moderate' left winger. But biden will definitely not have a second term. The u.s. will give preference to AMD over intel. There will be a big shakeup in the media. We will (briefly) go to war with china over taiwan. A supreme court justice, maybe two, will die at the hands of the regime. 2024-2028 will see a much wider swing in congressional and senatorial seats. With both congress and the senate slightly red. The size of the IRS will be normalized.

Very few names (and certainly fewer of significance) will face consequences for the last six years.

Trump will be outed as having been behind some things we thought the left was behind.

The u.s. will step away from israel as an ally.

We will normalize relations with russia

We will disavow any cooperation with Turkey.

There will be large scale political upheaval, social unrest, and military turmoil in saudi arabia and yemen.

We may see significant muslim uprisings in eastern europe.

The bitcoin network will splinter again and face a resurgence in value across all coins as the rouble and petroyuan formalize some ties and the american regime grumbles but accepts some things are outside its control.

Next years harvest will be even worse than this year, with the weather even less predictable in north america and europe--this will be part of the catalyst for normalization of relations with russia.

Terrorism will become a significant new problem in the u.s, even worse than the 90s, as the FBI comes under fire over the next 2 years.

Twitter will face public structural financial problems, as will other tech companies, as the tech bubble doesn't formally pop, but is openly questioned by mainstream financial investors combine with pressure from astroturf retail investor movements.

The american military, or civilian leadership, will openly acknowledge we are no longer ahead in hypersonics, air-superiority, and other areas of combat.

Amnesty will likely not be officially passed, but there will grow, on both sides of the aisle, even as the RNC talks tough, more and more bills and policies and executive decisions that effectively create total amnesty--even more total than what we see today. A complete abandonment of immigration rules. These will be somewhat 'tightened' under red rule, but will be a continual sore spot, that the party 'fails' to do anything about every. single. time.

A new party will rise directly because of this last fact. It will face severe suppression by the secret police, both formally, through raids, and courts, and informally through other suppressive actions by various branches of the administrative state.

Trump will kneecap the teachers unions specifically, with the schedule F mandate, but while greatly crowing about the success of it, it will for the most part lead to only a fraction of the actual firings we anticipated.

There will be some sort of debt or loan forgiveness or debt restructuring for the education system, and likely other types of debt. Wallstreet will simultenously gorge itself on bailouts, and deeply protest 'debt forgiveness'.

That is all.

The RNC will gain or lose no more than 5-10 seats in congress. Trump or someone endorsed by him will get into office in 2024. Or a 'moderate' left winger. But biden will definitely not have a second term. The u.s. will give preference to AMD over intel. There will be a big shakeup in the media. We will (briefly) go to war with china over taiwan. A supreme court justice, maybe two, will die at the hands of the regime. 2024-2028 will see a much wider swing in congressional and senatorial seats. With both congress and the senate slightly red. The size of the IRS will be normalized. Very few names (and certainly fewer of significance) will face consequences for the last six years. Trump will be outed as having been behind some things we thought the left was behind. The u.s. will step away from israel as an ally. We will normalize relations with russia We will disavow any cooperation with Turkey. There will be large scale political upheaval, social unrest, and military turmoil in saudi arabia and yemen. We may see significant muslim uprisings in eastern europe. The bitcoin network will splinter again and face a resurgence in value across all coins as the rouble and petroyuan formalize some ties and the american regime grumbles but accepts some things are outside its control. Next years harvest will be even worse than this year, with the weather even less predictable in north america and europe--this will be part of the catalyst for normalization of relations with russia. Terrorism will become a significant new problem in the u.s, even worse than the 90s, as the FBI comes under fire over the next 2 years. Twitter will face public structural financial problems, as will other tech companies, as the tech bubble *doesn't* formally pop, but is openly questioned by mainstream financial investors combine with pressure from astroturf retail investor movements. The american military, or civilian leadership, will openly acknowledge we are no longer ahead in hypersonics, air-superiority, and other areas of combat. Amnesty will likely not be officially passed, but there will grow, on both sides of the aisle, even as the RNC talks tough, more and more bills and policies and executive decisions that effectively create total amnesty--**even** more total than what we see today. A complete abandonment of immigration rules. These will be somewhat 'tightened' under red rule, but will be a continual sore spot, that the party 'fails' to do anything about every. single. time. A new party will rise directly because of this last fact. It will face severe suppression by the secret police, both formally, through raids, and courts, and informally through other suppressive actions by various branches of the administrative state. Trump will kneecap the teachers unions specifically, with the schedule F mandate, but while greatly crowing about the success of it, it will for the most part lead to only a fraction of the actual firings we anticipated. There will be some sort of debt or loan forgiveness or debt restructuring for the education system, and likely other types of debt. Wallstreet will simultenously gorge itself on bailouts, and deeply protest 'debt forgiveness'. That is all.

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[–] • 0 pt

I think the DS has taken a significant hit via clandestine means.

This is where we depart. I think most of what we see is inter-factional infighting and little else, at the tail-end of a dying fiscal empire.

It's flailing, and the only adults in the room are probably part of the pentagon. And their priorities amount to maintaining the ponzi, because a couple billion people die if it collapses. In other words their best outcome is the status quo, or more corruption, and slow decline. And I think they are failing but fighting hard to get this outcome.

This comports, again, with what other empires throughout time have done when in decline: circle the wagons and retreat to defensible positions, minimizing the prior costs of defending over-extended territories.

On that prediction I can say our defense of taiwan will be limited, as taiwan is slowly strangled off by more and more military blockades, rather than out-right action. Which wouldn't be an unreasonable conclusion based on the existing premise, supported no less by what has already happened: u.s. refusal to engage in direct action in ukraine, instead again, resorting to proxies. The past is the best predictor of the future.

And I don't blame them. The mid-level political considerations don't have the support because they don't support the nations interests..at the political level.

At the very high level, long-term, defeating russia in ukraine does benefit u.s. national interests. Its this gap between short term and long term that destroys the feasibility of any sort of support. Thats a weakness built into the constitution and decision making structure and how its election cycles interrupt long-term planning.

Which is probably a good thing, because politics, unlike economics, is a different sort of animal, one that only makes bad decisions worse by its own lack of foresight.

Leviathan was probably blind. The u.s. government is too.

[–] • 1 pt

Taiwan is still a question for me. We have 4 carrier groups there at the moment. The British and French have carriers there. Japan has "helicopter destroyers" (what they call their carriers) there with US F-35s and US pilots. Australia has ships there as well. An awful lot of firepower. And it has been there for many months.

[–] • 0 pt

An awful lot of firepower. And it has been there for many months.

yes, and awful lot. But has it been there before for many months? Thats the question. How unusual is this configuration of nations, and level of power, compared to past military exercises?

What are the paths and scenarios it can go wrong? What are the reasons any actor involved might want it to 'go wrong'? Xi wanting a war to quell riots in china. America needing a war as a political distraction. Taiwain needing america and china to fight, so Taiwain doesn't have to fight Xi.

And more importantly, are the assumptions behind those reasons real? How likely is the truth of the various details supporting the baseline assumptions underlying these scenarios?

Is Xi really facing instability? Is that related to upcoming party elections? Who, if anyone, would be his challengers? They would be the most likely culprits, supposing the instability is real.

Does america want a war for distractions sake? Or because we are owned by Xi or others, and they intend to have us intentionally lose? Is america attempting actually to project strength while avoiding war for fear of losing or angering our economic 'ally' of china?

Questioning assumptions is no doubt important.

[–] • 1 pt

"But has it been there before for many months? Thats the question. How unusual is this configuration of nations, and level of power, compared to past military exercises?"

Yes, many months. This is an unprecedented configuration, especially in this region. Not an exercise. But they have been practicing their coordination. What is very unusual is having US aircraft and pilots on Japanese "carriers".

[–] • 0 pt

A key piece of the answer is that there is a major struggle between Xi and the CCP. A lot of discussion in China about the loss of the "Mandate of Heaven". Xi is working to place that responsibility on the CCP. He has already hamstrung two of his major enemies. I believe the CCP is pushing for the war. My deep intel predicts a reuniting of Taiwan and China, but as a democracy. Unfortunately my current events intel pipeline and my good friend passed away a couple of months ago.