especially right wing militias being labelled as terrorist groups and this is going to eventually lead to the abolishment of the 2nd amendment.
I think they will try.
But we also have to be cogent that a tactic used too often eventually backfires.
The more over-reaches the u.s. government commits the more it will lead to militia formation and radicalization. The federal government and its various appendages acknowledged this themselves on several occasions through public documents.
They may be counting on that very phenomenon, but I also think, beyond a critical junction, they can't completely control the process, and aren't one hundred percent sure it can be contained. Which is exactly why we see the standard playbook rolled out: lots of seemingly 'regular' commentators all over the web coming out of the woodwork with, in many cases, almost verbatim comments "don't fight back! Thats what the government wants you to do!"
The implication is, if you fall for that line of thinking, that the government could and would crush a movement even if that movement had sufficient momentum to grow much bigger.
Waco is a barely more than a one off, happened before the mass change over to social media, so the narrative could be controlled--and even then it lead to a brief mass renewal of the militia movement. Imagine if it happened today, with the amount of communication and interconnection people have now. The public, and those elements in the public prone to joining or forming militias, would be much more aware, and much more outraged. It's not hard to see the effect of this. Just look at bundy ranch. Thats how fast a modern militia response is to an outrage. And it was stopped because of the increase in awareness technology brought, combine with too many guns being present. (theres also tactical and geographic differences between an open plain and an enclosed building, but thats a topic for another discussion).
Basically the details matter, and the context, social, political, economic, geographic, and technological, are huge factors in whether an event garners a response at all, and the scale of that response. And none of these factors work in the governments favor. In fact, the trend and the force multiplier of these variables is moving towards worse and worse outcomes, both in impact, and magnitude, for the u.s. government when (not if) it attempts another event like waco.
tl;dr they are invulnerable is the incorrect lesson to draw from events like waco and ruby ridge. Put them in historic context to developments over the last twenty years, and it shows you the direction things are heading.
It is why they are going to try to turn guns into a mental health issue, and attempt slow disarmament through suppressing gun culture, and salami-slicing those rights until they are too risky to exercise for most people. Some element of the u.s. government, probably the DoD, is of course having none of it, which is why they legalized the AR-15 again. And the salami slicing is having the opposite effect strategically (look at the renewed gun rights movement in the u.s.). Once the DC regime and the politiburo realize this, they'll eventually drop the slow roll and attempt a big policy push, while lagging on enforcement (only in fits and bursts), so we don't push back to often (under the theory that the regime and regime supporters will be able to click their tongues and claim "see, the [insert major antigun bills(s)], didn't lead to mass confiscation you bitter-clinger gun lovers!"
And then, once precedent locks-in those laws, we'll see a slow ramp up of enforcement. Because enforcement is never as high profile as passing the laws, policy, or precedent to provide the legal justification FOR enforcement.
So maybe 10-15 years tops, but we'll see the major anti-gun push over the next 2-4 years, assuming biden is one term, and the next one is some rino (they always push what they figure will lead to a revolt, under a 'rightwing' president, in order to quell the risk of backlash, e.g. vaccines and riots and lockdowns and ubi under Trump).
And around 2025-2027 we'll start to see the slow ramp up, and normalization of enforcement of these policies and laws.
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