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163

Maybe it wasn't the right move, but any equity I had that wasn't in a DRIP plan and wasn't intended for perpetual holding has been liquidated.

But it felt like the right move. Might look into doubling down and buying put options if I can identify any real losers out there before it becomes apparent.

Regardless, with the current news coming out, even if the Wuhan Flu isn't the global hyper-plague some think it is, it seems to me like it is than enough to seriously disrupt supply chains and general commerce/tourism in such a way to force a global recession.

If I were you, I would look towards shorting businesses that would be most immediately affected by quarantines. Think public gathering places, such as chain restaurants/bars, any Mall REITs.

Conversely, grocery store chains and hardware chains might be a good investment, as the masses seek to prep for the worst, although those with large ties to China will certainly have their supply chains interrupted. Smaller, regional chains will be less affected by this than most major national chains.

Lastly, watch companies that make n95 masks and antiretroviral medications. If any of the products they manufacture are made in China, wait for fools to push the price upward, and immediately short them. The Chinese government will seize their means of production if things get bad enough, and plummet the stock price, not to mention disrupted supply chains.

Maybe it wasn't the right move, but any equity I had that wasn't in a DRIP plan and wasn't intended for perpetual holding has been liquidated. But it felt like the right move. Might look into doubling down and buying put options if I can identify any real losers out there before it becomes apparent. Regardless, with the current news coming out, even if the Wuhan Flu isn't the global hyper-plague some think it is, it seems to me like it is than enough to seriously disrupt supply chains and general commerce/tourism in such a way to force a global recession. If I were you, I would look towards shorting businesses that would be most immediately affected by quarantines. Think public gathering places, such as chain restaurants/bars, any Mall REITs. Conversely, grocery store chains and hardware chains might be a good investment, as the masses seek to prep for the worst, although those with large ties to China will certainly have their supply chains interrupted. Smaller, regional chains will be less affected by this than most major national chains. Lastly, watch companies that make n95 masks and antiretroviral medications. If any of the products they manufacture are made in China, wait for fools to push the price upward, and immediately short them. The Chinese government will seize their means of production if things get bad enough, and plummet the stock price, not to mention disrupted supply chains.

(post is archived)

[–] • 3 pts

You... sold on the dip?

Oh boy, TK. It's looking pretty grim for you.

[–] • 1 pt

Lol, I never sell on dips. I sell because I believe a recession is coming and the market has been too frothy recently.

But let's check back in 3 months, I'd like to know who was right.

[–] • 2 pts

You don't transfer your fiat to less fiat in the event of an impending recession, you transfer your fiat to not-fiat in the event of an impending recession.
I try to not be very hands on, TK, but you're really paining me here.

[–] • 2 pts

Well what would you do exactly?

[–] • 2 pts

I cashed out and sold every possession I have. Then I donated it all to the CDC for Corona studies. I'm scared. I don't know what to do. People are doing dead all around me. Is this the end?

[–] • 1 pt

I know, I know, you want to laugh at me for being rash. But I have a very high risk tolerance, and it feels like the right move.

Maybe it wasn't. Only time will tell.

But at the end of the day, if the stock market goes on an unprecedented rally while I am sitting on just cash, I wont be that pissed off.

But if everyone else is dead and I'm snapping up cheap equity and real estate with my pile of cash, I'll be pretty fucking satisfied.

[–] • 1 pt

Stock market is just fancy gambling. I just like being an ass.

[–] • 2 pts

You see the global economy?

You see your lungs?

That's it

Corona is aerosol paper glue dumped in your lungs essentially... It's not that bad in itself... Yeah WTF!!!!!

https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/wake-you-fkin-morons-billionaire-blasts-snowflakes-eye-biggest-mother-fking-storm

[–] • 1 pt (edited )

Corona's lethality isn't that impressive, it's around 3%, conservative estimate. It's a joke compared to ebola for instance

But the fucking spread, "the reach" combined to "speed, accuracy and stamina", in boxing, to make an analogy

It's the super jab with unlimited cardio basically

The disruptive power of that shit is immense

And yeah it can kill on top of that, especially without medical assistance, quite obviously. And when it doesn't kill it's "pneumonia flu", and you can get infected several times, over and over and over again... A fucking economic nightmare

Now if you don't recognize the potential within that shit, you haven't seen "muhamad ali" coming essentially

It's just a "jab", a "coronavirus"

That strain is to coronavirus what yamazaki is to the jab https://youtu.be/kjtAibvnbi4?t=8

...

Hedge accordingly

[–] • 1 pt

Good bro, how’s life treating you?

[–] • 1 pt

Home Depot was down today on an earnings beat. I'm might be buying tomorrow.

[–] • 1 pt

Fuck u I'm buying put options

[–] • 1 pt

I’m buying at a discount

[–] • 0 pt

Today?

[–] • 0 pt (edited )

If you sell equities when they're down then isn't that bucking the old "buy low sell high" strategy?

Even if you think equities will continue to fall in value, wouldn't it still make sense to continue purchasing them as they drop? You're able to get them at a lower price, as long as you're diversified you know you're gonna get it back later, and you can keep your portfolio balanced between equities and cash equivalents/bonds based on when you think you're going to need your money.

[–] • 1 pt

I don't think equity is low, despite the minor "dip". I think equity is high.

[–] • 1 pt

Fiat has done precisely one single thing in the past one hundred years.
The entire point of it was to inflate number counters so morans would fomo in to the system (equity...) endlessly. Afterwards, fiat would be used to siphon time and energy away from the proles.
Hell, fiat very vividly devalues as more tree shavings are printed.

You are not playing with money, TK, you're playing with digital numbers that have no real value in the world. You can't hold those numbers. No one you know can. All you can do is trade some of your numbers for other people's numbers.

Credit isn't "money". Those papers in your wallet, they aren't money either... They even literally say so.

[–] • 0 pt

I don't disagree with you, but most people do.

[–] • 0 pt

Still seems a bit rash. What if equities jump back up from the dip and you're not holding any? What if they remain high longer than you were comfortable being out of the market?

[–] • 1 pt

Oh I also don't really care about money, which helps a lot.

[–] • 0 pt

I’m reading some good points from others, you avoid the dips and don’t sell after. I understand where you’re coming from, will it go lower, maybe. The hard question, how do you determine that a dip is coming? I went to 50%, money market account, two weeks ago. There’s this kick ass financial advisor in Houston named Lance Roberts. I read his news letter weekly. He’s normally bullish, will never recommend a crash, but when he talks about thinking about increasing allocations to cash... Pull it, don’t wait. Check him out, I don’t care or have time to figure out when our masters want a crash, I just follow Lance.

You’ll have to pile it back into stawks, if you don’t you’ll be leaving money on the table. Make predictions and see if they come true, start thinking about the best time to get back in. Good luck...