p. 2: https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2018/06/a_guide_to_spygate.html
The FBI may well have been behind this attempted setup, this endeavor to utterly derail the Trump campaign, using techniques that are authorized under a Preliminary Investigation. Obviously, I don't know this for a fact, but the circumstantial evidence certainly points in that direction. Remember that this meeting took place in the context of months of FBI activity with regard to the Trump campaign. Veselnitskaya was only able to enter the US on a special Visa, approved by AG Lynch. Both shortly before and after the Trump Tower meeting, Veselnitskaya met with Glenn Simpson of Fusion GPS, whose FBI connections are now well known. And, finally, if D. Manny is correct, Peter Strzok had already discussed the use of consensual monitoring, going forward from 4/30/16. If this is, indeed, how things went down, it's easy to imagine the disappointment at the FBI and DoJ.
The mining of NSA data for political intelligence had been shut down by NSA's Mike Rogers. The targeting of Trump campaign associates wasn't producing the type of results that would have a guaranteed impact on the Trump campaign. And now, the best opportunity so far of delivering a kill shot to the Trump campaign had flopped. What was really needed was a FISA warrant that could be used against the Trump campaign, but to have even a chance at FISA they first needed a Full Investigation on someone close to the campaign.
There were two possibilities, it seems. The FBI could resurrect 10 year old charges against Paul Manafort. Sharyl Attkisson tells us that at the time of the Trump Tower meeting the FBI had no FISA on Manafort, but that it soon afterwards restarted a FISA on him. Obviously, a FISA on Trump's campaign manager would be a goldmine of political intelligence.
And then, conveniently, there was the Carter Page angle: Christopher Steele had begun submitting his memos that became the famous "dossier," and by July, thanks to Page's trip to Moscow, the FBI was able to open a Full Investigation on Page -- their former informant.
It's possible that by this time -- with a restarted FISA on Manafort either in place or in contemplation -- the FBI felt they were making progress, getting back into the position that they had lost when Admiral Rogers pulled the NSA data plug on them. But all was not well, as the FBI may have already been aware. In fact, by August 16 we find Strzok/Page texting about the need for an "insurance policy."
Could that need have been triggered by Manafort's rapidly declining influence in the Trump campaign? Indeed, on the very next day Manafort was on the outs and resigned two days later. On August 14 The New York Times had reported on Manafort's connections to former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych and his pro-Russian Party of Regions. Manafort may have illegally received $12.7 million in off-the-books funds from the Party of Regions.
On August 17, 2016, Donald Trump received his first security briefing. The same day, August 17, Trump shook up his campaign organization in a way that appeared to minimize Manafort's role. It was reported that members of Trump's family, particularly Jared Kushner, who had originally been a strong backer of Manafort, had become uneasy about his Russian connections and suspected that he had not been forthright about them. Manafort stated in an internal staff memorandum that he would "remain the campaign chairman and chief strategist, providing the big-picture, long-range campaign vision." However, two days later, Trump announced his acceptance of Manafort's resignation from the campaign ...
And that's when the FBI began scrambling to get a FISA on Carter Page.
An initiation of a Full Investigation is required before a FISA order can be obtained, and the FBI had the required Full Investigation in place, against Carter Page. The initiation of that Full Investigation had undoubtedly required some pushing of the envelope, since the predication for the Full Investigation, the "articulable factual basis," had almost certainly been the Steele "dossier," now known to be unverified. Even with the Full Investigation in place, however, a FISA was far from a certainty. As we've seen, Preliminary or Full Investigations can be opened on a claimed purpose of protecting Americans (for example, Donald Trump) from the intelligence activity of a hostile foreign power, such as Russia. However, if you go in front of the FISA court (FISC) and ask for a FISA order on an American citizen to "protect" him from intelligence activity, you'll be tossed out on your ear.
The problem is that FISA requires a showing that the person targeted (Carter Page) is "knowingly engage[d] in clandestine intelligence gathering activities for or on behalf of a foreign power, which activities involve or may involve a violation of the criminal statutes of the United States."
That’s a tough hill to climb and, as I've argued in the past, the FBI's FISA application likely went well beyond "pushing the envelope" into the realm of sheer invention; witness James Comey's admission that the dossier remains "unverified," even though, according to Andrew McCabe, it was crucial to ultimately obtaining the FISA (late October, 2016). In point of fact, as part of the FISA application process, the FBI and DoJ would be required to state to the FISA court that what they were presenting was verified information with a high degree of reliability. And they would know that to be false. Moreover, the required showing under FISA that Carter Page -- whom the FBI had targeted with informants only a few months earlier -- was an "agent of a foreign power" engaged in "clandestine intelligence activities" for or on behalf of Russia militates strongly against the Clapper claim that "we were only trying to help and protect."
Even if by pushing the envelope the use of informants could be justified under a Preliminary Investigation, FISA is far too specific in its requirements to justify "secret surveillance warrants" simply on the basis of a supposed (or "arguable") "threat to national security." That simply won't fly. And this is why access to the FISA application that the leadership of the FBI and DoJ signed off on remains of paramount importance for investigators, along with the EC that supposedly justified the Full Investigation.
One final point. These considerations may shed some light on the thinking that went on in the White House as these events unfolded, as suggested by Susan Rice's "email to self." If President Obama did, in fact, state that everything should be done "by the book," that would help explain why the FBI jumped through all these hoops in the effort to cover their actions. To all appearances, the FBI and DoJ were operating "by the book." It's only when you examine the details -- and especially the FISA details -- that you begin to see what a threat their activities constituted to our republic.
Mark Wauck is a retired FBI agent. He blogs on religion, philosophy, and FISA at meaninginhistory.
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