I read that "exercise" months ago and the big question I had was how do you kick this off? How do you get to Taiwan via Japan. As soon as I saw this headline I immediately thought about that exercise. My guess is Abe wouldn't go along with the ff or this is the ff and sets Japan in motion.
I read that "exercise" months ago and the big question I had was how do you kick this off? How do you get to Taiwan via Japan. As soon as I saw this headline I immediately thought about that exercise
the lack of official speculation or idealogical scapegoating by the japanese government (and international affiliates), says to me that this is potentially a narrative with an explicit goal. Why withhold speculation when thats the go-to in many sensational events? Unless of course theres a reason for withholding. Which tells me theres a next step to this.
Explains, in a manner of speaking, how the attacker obtained the means for this assassination.
"potentially a narrative with an explicit goal" I totally agree.
Below is from page 41 of the tabletop. Keep an eye out for the "Ryukyu island chain" to pop up in the media. That would be the next step.
There are ongoing disputes between China and Japan (most notably, control of the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, as we discuss in Chapter Three) that could plausibly escalate into a military confrontation in which China could bring its substantial military capabilities to bear against Japan. Moreover, as we discuss in Chapter Four, China’s long-term maritime ambitions and the geography of the region mean that the Ryukyu island chain could become another plausible flashpoint. Advocates of restraint have not carefully analyzed the threat that China poses to Japan’s military power or to the Ryukyus.
Overall, the most likely military threat from China, should it choose to attack Japan, would be from missile strikes against key military infrastructure (such as runways, bases, and air and missile defenses) followed by attacks from aircraft, surface ships, and submarines to disable Japan’s naval and air assets. Such an attack could come from an escalating dispute over the Senkaku Islands or the Ryukyu Islands or from Japan’s involvement in a war over Taiwan. Chinese military capabilities that could target Japan’s territory or its naval and air forces include the PLA’s large and growing arsenal of precision strike missiles, such as ASBMs, MRBMs, and LACMs. The PLAN is upgrading and deploying surface combatants with modern air defenses and longer-range ASCMs.9
I indicated a while ago (3-6 months back I think) that taiwan, to me, looked like a distraction. And if you were going to start that fight you might as well go all the way because there was a 50/50 chance that the u.s. would hit you with everything we have if anyone even attempted it.
All the way would mean going to war with the u.s. itself. And the infrastructure weaking, social agitation, and disorder in the u.s., looks exactly like the very preliminaries necessary for such a war.
Therefore, the next step wouldn't be to take taiwan. Thats merely an agitation and distraction.
The next step would be, as you said, attacking japan and those properties adjacent to it. Because no attack on the u.s. could succeed (short of a nuclear war), without first taking the japanese. It may not be our doorstep, but it's our lawn.
Meanwhile the u.s. would lose a beat misallocating and mistrategizing for the defense of taiwan.
Taking taiwan would only serve to put us on our backfoot because of the chip shortages/electronics manufacturing disruption it would cause--an essentially reactionary move in response to u.s. tarriffs. We know a certain asian nation that shall remain unnamed, has never been truly reactionary, so it doesn't align with their profile to do something like that.
If you're competing for silver, you might as well go for gold.
Overall, the most likely military threat from xyz, should it choose to attack Japan, would be from missile strikes
Is this because of the need for any strike to be sudden and without warning, or more likely because of the lack of sea power projection?
Really stimulating thread you've started here. Thanks.
(post is archived)