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As some of you know I operate a small refrigerated freight carrier company. We have 6 over the road trucks and refer trailers. I just got a call from my dispatcher panicked... within 48 hours the rates have ABSOLUTELY tanked, so much so that we are electing to sit in Salt Lake City and Denver. We have been getting between $3.00 - $3.30 per mile, rates are now $2.00 per mile and lower. We simply can not make a profit at this number, we are literally losing money with every additional mile. The funny thing is this is across the board, the spot market is very quick to react to market conditions and there is very little fat. What this tells me is there is NO freight to move ( we move food) and there is a serious excess capacity with trucks. Between fuel cost, increased and unwarranted insurance increases they are KILLING small carriers such as myself. I also heard that Walmart and swift are cutting a huge % of their company drivers and back filling with owner operators. My gut is the insurance and maintenance costs coupled with downed trucks because of the lack of parts makes it hard to make a profit.

I hired back a driver that went to a company that had 46 truck fleet and 18 of the trucks were down waiting for parts (3-6 weeks for some longer for others)

As some of you know I operate a small refrigerated freight carrier company. We have 6 over the road trucks and refer trailers. I just got a call from my dispatcher panicked... within 48 hours the rates have ABSOLUTELY tanked, so much so that we are electing to sit in Salt Lake City and Denver. We have been getting between $3.00 - $3.30 per mile, rates are now $2.00 per mile and lower. We simply can not make a profit at this number, we are literally losing money with every additional mile. The funny thing is this is across the board, the spot market is very quick to react to market conditions and there is very little fat. What this tells me is there is NO freight to move ( we move food) and there is a serious excess capacity with trucks. Between fuel cost, increased and unwarranted insurance increases they are KILLING small carriers such as myself. I also heard that Walmart and swift are cutting a huge % of their company drivers and back filling with owner operators. My gut is the insurance and maintenance costs coupled with downed trucks because of the lack of parts makes it hard to make a profit. I hired back a driver that went to a company that had 46 truck fleet and 18 of the trucks were down waiting for parts (3-6 weeks for some longer for others)

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[–] • 0 pt

My long-tail models put the trucking collapse at six months out, between the original 9-18 timeline.

If what you're saying is accurate, a revised estimate with the new model, puts the trucking collapse/crisis peak at 21-22 days, give or take a few hours. This aligns with the 32 day lower-bound estimate of a u.s. crisis/collapse.

Hypothetically if nation xyz (a certain asian nation that shall not be named), wanted to perform an invasion of taiwan, they'd need america grid locked with riots or economic disorder, so we wouldn't have the resources to respond.

Meaning the trucking collapse would have to come first. That puts a new, tighter lowerbound on events. and likely, other crises, such as railyard and railline sabotage by a fifth column, which are likely in-bound. These events, multiple crisis, will have to happen close together so foreign adversaries can affect the maximum amount of pressure possible on the u.s.

[–] • 1 pt

Wow that is absolutely terrifying! I too feel it in the air, I dont have the statistical background to fall back on ( C- in probability & statistics). At this moment I am focused on protecting my little patch of earth should it come to that.

[–] • 0 pt

At this moment I am focused on protecting my little patch of earth should it come to that.

absolutely . The only thing different I would do in your shoes, would be to have spare diesel and gas stocked up, in addition to the standard supplies.

It hedges against price rises anyway.