Thanks for the update, its an interesting piece of the puzzle.
Thanks for the update, its an interesting piece of the puzzle.
I just want to say first, thanks for everything you do. I hope this doesn't spell the end of your company, and the end of us.
I just want to say first, thanks for everything you do. I hope this doesn't spell the end of your company, and the end of us.
I have a several hundred K cushion but it is slowly trickling down week by week! Thank you though, I appreciate the sentiment.
I have a several hundred K cushion but it is slowly trickling down week by week! Thank you though, I appreciate the sentiment.
several hundred k unfortunately dwindles fast when you own a business! Best of luck
several hundred k unfortunately dwindles fast when you own a business! Best of luck
Can you provide insight into how this is happening? I thought we didn't have enough trucks to move everything. Are people not buying stuff? Food sources drying up? Something else?
Can you provide insight into how this is happening? I thought we didn't have enough trucks to move everything. Are people not buying stuff? Food sources drying up? Something else?
I honestly cant place my finger on it. My dispatcher ( who lives in Bosnia) who has been dispatching trucks in the US for 15 years says he has never seen anything like it! My concern ( and it is a concern at this point no fact) is that even with a supposed shortage of truck capacity, the available freight is falling below an even depressed number of available trucks. That to me is a signal that needs to be on everyon's radar. If the freight market is driven by supply and demand, and the rates are tanking even with a depleted trucking capacity there is a SERIOUS shortage of goods to be moved!
I honestly cant place my finger on it. My dispatcher ( who lives in Bosnia) who has been dispatching trucks in the US for 15 years says he has never seen anything like it! My concern ( and it is a concern at this point no fact) is that even with a supposed shortage of truck capacity, the available freight is falling below an even depressed number of available trucks. That to me is a signal that needs to be on everyon's radar. If the freight market is driven by supply and demand, and the rates are tanking even with a depleted trucking capacity there is a SERIOUS shortage of goods to be moved!
I can certainly try...we operate off of the spot market because our trucks are constantly in different locations so fixed routes don't really work for us. The market is very quick to adapt to supply and demand and is mostly controlled by freight brokers looking to move freight. Typically we need about $2.80 per mile to make a profit! We are seeing rates as of yesterday out of Salt Lake sub $1.50 per mile. My understanding is there is a definite shortage of truckers in the industry, that I can verify. Because pricing in the spot market is set by supply and demand. If we have a shortage of trucks and truckers, this is signaling to me that the movable freight is falling below even that level which is scary!
I can certainly try...we operate off of the spot market because our trucks are constantly in different locations so fixed routes don't really work for us. The market is very quick to adapt to supply and demand and is mostly controlled by freight brokers looking to move freight. Typically we need about $2.80 per mile to make a profit! We are seeing rates as of yesterday out of Salt Lake sub $1.50 per mile. My understanding is there is a definite shortage of truckers in the industry, that I can verify. Because pricing in the spot market is set by supply and demand. If we have a shortage of trucks and truckers, this is signaling to me that the movable freight is falling below even that level which is scary!
Exactly, I read recently Walmart paying 100k to truckers. Also, heard the industry looking to hire teenagers because they need truckers so bad.
Exactly, I read recently Walmart paying 100k to truckers. Also, heard the industry looking to hire teenagers because they need truckers so bad.
Im telling you what my drivers are telling me. These guys have long hours alone and LOVE to talk. Walmart is cutting company drivers because they sont have parts to maintain their fleet and want to pass the burden on to owner operators
Im telling you what my drivers are telling me. These guys have long hours alone and LOVE to talk. Walmart is cutting company drivers because they sont have parts to maintain their fleet and want to pass the burden on to owner operators
I thought we didn't have enough trucks to move everything.
We didn't, but it wasn't so bad to the point where everything collapsed like most imagine it would. It manifested in much more subtle ways, mostly a lot of really overworked truckers picking up extra shifts (not joking).
Are people not buying stuff?
Companies aren't willing to pay reasonable prices to have stuff that they bought/made moved. OP talks about getting about $3/mile with his refrigerated transportation normally, but the customers are not willing to pay more than $2/mile very suddenly, just earlier today. Could mean the companies are hurting in the wallet, looking to cut costs everywhere they can- freight is one of the first places to look in a lot of cases.
>I thought we didn't have enough trucks to move everything.
We didn't, but it wasn't so bad to the point where everything collapsed like most imagine it would. It manifested in much more subtle ways, mostly a lot of really overworked truckers picking up extra shifts (not joking).
>Are people not buying stuff?
Companies aren't willing to pay reasonable prices to have stuff that they bought/made *moved.* OP talks about getting about $3/mile with his refrigerated transportation normally, but the customers are not willing to pay more than $2/mile very suddenly, just earlier today. Could mean the companies are hurting in the wallet, looking to cut costs everywhere they can- freight is one of the first places to look in a lot of cases.
I wouldn't say that is how the supply chain works for perishable goods. It isn't like they are going warehouse food that will expire.
I wouldn't say that is how the supply chain works for perishable goods. It isn't like they are going warehouse food that will expire.
Most of the refrigerated warehouses we ship to are at max capacity and woefully under staffed. We are often made to sit days on end because they are ao backed up, essentially using my trailer as a next to free mobile atorage.
Most of the refrigerated warehouses we ship to are at max capacity and woefully under staffed. We are often made to sit days on end because they are ao backed up, essentially using my trailer as a next to free mobile atorage.
Could mean the companies are hurting in the wallet,
I don't think this is how any of it works.
When I want to ship something I compare prices between shippers and go with the lowest cost option, regardless of what the price is. Shippers compete for my buisness by lowering prices. As the lowest priced options get booked the higher priced ones are what I have to use. The less remaining capacity there is the higher prices go. And the longer it continues even the lowest priced carriers adjust thier prices up.
Similarly when shipping freight I set a low price, based on what current shipping prices are, and adjust up if no one is willing to take it at that price.
This is what dictates rates and not the .001% of freight that doesn't ship because the shipper can't afford it.
>Could mean the companies are hurting in the wallet,
I don't think this is how any of it works.
When I want to ship something I compare prices between shippers and go with the lowest cost option, regardless of what the price is. Shippers compete for my buisness by lowering prices. As the lowest priced options get booked the higher priced ones are what I have to use. The less remaining capacity there is the higher prices go. And the longer it continues even the lowest priced carriers adjust thier prices up.
Similarly when shipping freight I set a low price, based on what current shipping prices are, and adjust up if no one is willing to take it at that price.
This is what dictates rates and not the .001% of freight that doesn't ship because the shipper can't afford it.
I'm telling you how it works. I am very close to someone in the industry. I'm speculating about possible reasons for OP's observations.
I'm telling you how it works. I am very close to someone in the industry. I'm speculating about possible reasons for OP's observations.
Correct, this has way more to dow with not enough freight leading to extreme excess capacity. Larger carriers can run a no or even negative margins just to keep the trucks moving. I cannot not!
Correct, this has way more to dow with not enough freight leading to extreme excess capacity. Larger carriers can run a no or even negative margins just to keep the trucks moving. I cannot not!
I thought the same thing and read the same articles. I also read an article a few weeks back that hinted to HUGE shit in freight rates leading to extreme excess capacity. I cant make any sense of it.
I thought the same thing and read the same articles. I also read an article a few weeks back that hinted to HUGE shit in freight rates leading to extreme excess capacity. I cant make any sense of it.
How to Manufacture a food shortage 101
How to Manufacture a food shortage 101
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/meltdown-bank-america-sounding-alarm-collapsing-freight-demand
I read this article, and actually sent it out to my drivers to spurn a discussion, not to foment fear but to let them know what may be coming down the pike. My thoughts ran to this article when I got the word from my dispatcher yesterday! Thanks for sharing I was hoping someone would find this....
I read this article, and actually sent it out to my drivers to spurn a discussion, not to foment fear but to let them know what may be coming down the pike. My thoughts ran to this article when I got the word from my dispatcher yesterday! Thanks for sharing I was hoping someone would find this....
Based on this https://convoy.com/blog/freight-industry-recessions-and-the-business-cycle/
You should lay everyone off for 6-10 months.
Based on this https://convoy.com/blog/freight-industry-recessions-and-the-business-cycle/
You should lay everyone off for 6-10 months.
I still have to keep insurance ( $143k a year) and have truck and trailer payments of roughly $25k. Not to mention it could take that long to hire new drivers.
I still have to keep insurance ( $143k a year) and have truck and trailer payments of roughly $25k. Not to mention it could take that long to hire new drivers.
Yep, even big companies can't get new trucks or parts. My friend at his small auto shop has multiple cars that have something they can't get. Dude I know form the gas company said they had already ordered trucks canceled and they can't get new ones so they are holding onto everything in the fleet.
Yep, even big companies can't get new trucks or parts. My friend at his small auto shop has multiple cars that have something they can't get. Dude I know form the gas company said they had already ordered trucks canceled and they can't get new ones so they are holding onto everything in the fleet.
I drive for a company with about 100 drivers all together. The shop has been having to borrow parts off of our vacant trucks for the past 6 months at least.
I drive for a company with about 100 drivers all together. The shop has been having to borrow parts off of our vacant trucks for the past 6 months at least.
I hope they picked one truck to cannibalize and kept a list of what was taken off.
I hope they picked one truck to cannibalize and kept a list of what was taken off.
I ordered 3 volvo vnl 760’s last September for January delivery. I kept getting pushed until they now canceled all Q3/Q4 builds AND deliveries
I ordered 3 volvo vnl 760’s last September for January delivery. I kept getting pushed until they now canceled all Q3/Q4 builds AND deliveries
Trucks that are out of service put an upward pressure on prices so it really isn't relevant to low transport prices.
Trucks that are out of service put an upward pressure on prices so it really isn't relevant to low transport prices.
Cetsris Parubus (all things remaining equal). If available freight to ship is falling considerably faster than supposed upward pressure then you are still in decline
Cetsris Parubus (all things remaining equal). If available freight to ship is falling considerably faster than supposed upward pressure then you are still in decline
there is a serious excess capacity with trucks.
Then
46 truck fleet and 18 of the trucks were down waiting for parts
Does not compute.
>there is a serious excess capacity with trucks.
Then
>46 truck fleet and 18 of the trucks were down waiting for parts
Does not compute.
Sure it does, if you have excess capacity with diminished fleets what does that that tell you? Ex. Lets say the average fleet has 50 trucks and 15 are down because they are waiting for parts, shipping rates rates go down due to excess capacity. If there is excess capacity at 35 trucks per fleet, then freight to be shipped is plummeting even faster. Does that compute?
Sure it does, if you have excess capacity with diminished fleets what does that that tell you? Ex. Lets say the average fleet has 50 trucks and 15 are down because they are waiting for parts, shipping rates rates go down due to excess capacity. If there is excess capacity at 35 trucks per fleet, then freight to be shipped is plummeting even faster. Does that compute?
Parts shortage makes a lot of sense. Better hope they can start a new manufacturing sector soon, otherwise things will be getting much worse.
Parts shortage makes a lot of sense. Better hope they can start a new manufacturing sector soon, otherwise things will be getting much worse.
mentioned Convoy in their comment here. This is important bc Convoy is part of the problem. https://www.geekwire.com/2016/greylock-leads-16m-round-demand-trucking-startup-convoy-reid-hoffman-joins-board/
Who owns Convoy?
Excerpt:
Investors that were part of the seed round include Bezos Expeditions — the investment arm of Amazon.com CEO Jeff Bezos — Salesforce.com CEO Marc Benioff; Expedia CEO Dara Khosrowshahi; Dropbox CEO Drew Houston; former Starbucks President Howard Behar; KKR CEO Henry Kravis; eBay founder Pierre Omidyar via Omidyar Technology Ventures; and several others.
We all know about Bezos. Salesforce recently made the news bc corrupt SOS Raffensperger got them on board to "assist" with GA elections. Omidyar is the original NeverTrumper and works closely with the UN and World Bank. Starbucks is woke as heck. Hoffman not only owns linked in but also funded the New Knowledge Alabama Russian bot hoax that effectively knocked Trump's pick out of the running.
Soooooo....these are people that are controlling the freight industry. Nice.
These people operate from a systems perspective - They look at a system - in this case freight - identify the components and find a way to gain control over each part. They've done this with every system in our lives.
thank you for posting this and sharing your personal experience. I'm so sorry this is happening to your business. Truckers are the lifeblood of our country - We take for granted all you do - until you aren't able to do it anymore, and we notice the huge effect your absence has on our everyday lives. My prayers - and the prayers of many others - are with you.
May interest
@LOLOLCUS mentioned Convoy in their comment here. This is important bc Convoy is part of the problem. https://www.geekwire.com/2016/greylock-leads-16m-round-demand-trucking-startup-convoy-reid-hoffman-joins-board/
Who owns Convoy?
Excerpt:
>Investors that were part of the seed round include Bezos Expeditions — the investment arm of Amazon.com CEO Jeff Bezos — Salesforce.com CEO Marc Benioff; Expedia CEO Dara Khosrowshahi; Dropbox CEO Drew Houston; former Starbucks President Howard Behar; KKR CEO Henry Kravis; eBay founder Pierre Omidyar via Omidyar Technology Ventures; and several others.
We all know about Bezos. Salesforce recently made the news bc corrupt SOS Raffensperger got them on board to "assist" with GA elections.
Omidyar is the original NeverTrumper and works closely with the UN and World Bank. Starbucks is woke as heck. Hoffman not only owns linked in but also funded the New Knowledge Alabama Russian bot hoax that effectively knocked Trump's pick out of the running.
Soooooo....these are people that are controlling the freight industry. Nice.
These people operate from a systems perspective - They look at a system - in this case freight - identify the components and find a way to gain control over each part. They've done this with every system in our lives.
@RDunzy4012 thank you for posting this and sharing your personal experience. I'm so sorry this is happening to your business. Truckers are the lifeblood of our country - We take for granted all you do - until you aren't able to do it anymore, and we notice the huge effect your absence has on our everyday lives. My prayers - and the prayers of many others - are with you.
May interest @NMBRFG @Fromthebeginning @Patriot2008
Amazing perspective! I stoped short of saying there was something/someone system wide or orchestrating this but you nailed it! Thank you for your thoughts and prayers!
Amazing perspective! I stoped short of saying there was something/someone system wide or orchestrating this but you nailed it! Thank you for your thoughts and prayers!
Thank you - I'm glad your post is getting attention - it's excellent and important. THESE are the issues that need our focus.
I hope you will keep us updated.
Thank you - I'm glad your post is getting attention - it's excellent and important. THESE are the issues that need our focus.
I hope you will keep us updated.
Investors that were part of the seed round include Bezos Expeditions — the investment arm of Amazon.com CEO Jeff Bezos — Salesforce.com CEO Marc Benioff; Expedia CEO Dara Khosrowshahi; Dropbox CEO Drew Houston; former Starbucks President Howard Behar; KKR CEO Henry Kravis; eBay founder Pierre Omidyar via Omidyar Technology Ventures; and several others.
A regular who's who in the Deep State funded Global Cabalists.
>Investors that were part of the seed round include Bezos Expeditions — the investment arm of Amazon.com CEO Jeff Bezos — Salesforce.com CEO Marc Benioff; Expedia CEO Dara Khosrowshahi; Dropbox CEO Drew Houston; former Starbucks President Howard Behar; KKR CEO Henry Kravis; eBay founder Pierre Omidyar via Omidyar Technology Ventures; and several others.
A regular who's who in the Deep State funded Global Cabalists.
Exactly - it's the same people everywhere in every system.
Exactly - it's the same people everywhere in every system.
Funny they should see an opportunity when they have crippled the trucking industry with covid and high fuel prices. Classic way to take over an industry. Crush real estate prices then buy up all the real estate and rent it back to the people. In 2030 you'll own nothing and be happy! Doctor evil aka. Klaus Schwab.
Funny they should see an opportunity when they have crippled the trucking industry with covid and high fuel prices. Classic way to take over an industry. Crush real estate prices then buy up all the real estate and rent it back to the people. In 2030 you'll own nothing and be happy! Doctor evil aka. Klaus Schwab.
Remind me again who gave the world the internet? (and don't say Al Gore. He gave us the Global Warming Hoax) :)
Knowing what we know now of our government agencies making huge money on patents, military contracts etc...Does anyone think they weren't in on the ground floor of the internet? Those billionaires are all bought and paid for by the Deep State. How do you make people think these are "geniuses?" Control the narrative.
Remind me again who gave the world the internet? (and don't say Al Gore. He gave us the Global Warming Hoax) :)
Knowing what we know now of our government agencies making huge money on patents, military contracts etc...Does anyone think they weren't in on the ground floor of the internet? Those billionaires are all bought and paid for by the Deep State. How do you make people think these are "geniuses?" Control the narrative.
So as it turns out, we are members of Convoy and as a load board it is absolute garbage! I searched multiple high-usage cities and they have NO LOADS. They would have to usurp DAY and 123loadboard to be taken seriously. I also noticed that they secured $250m in funding which is loose change for the collection of men you listed. If they were serious they would have bought DAT or brokers such as Teinity, TQL or Landstar. When you see this…the end is mear.
So as it turns out, we are members of Convoy and as a load board it is absolute garbage! I searched multiple high-usage cities and they have NO LOADS. They would have to usurp DAY and 123loadboard to be taken seriously. I also noticed that they secured $250m in funding which is loose change for the collection of men you listed. If they were serious they would have bought DAT or brokers such as Teinity, TQL or Landstar. When you see this…the end is mear.
Wow, RD, let's work on this. maybe you can get the word out among your transportation colleagues.
Here's some more explanation - I forgot to mention Gates: https://digital.hbs.edu/platform-digit/submission/convoy-the-uber-for-trucking/
So what about Convoy made you join?
They would have to usurp DAY and 123loadboard to be taken seriously.
I assure you that they are serious - or they wouldn't be pouring money into it. There IS a reason for that - The question is: What is the reason?
I also noticed that they secured $250m in funding which is loose change for the collection of men you listed. If they were serious they would have bought DAT or brokers such as Teinity, TQL or Landstar. When you see this…the end is near.
Is is it "DAY" or "DAT?" What does that stand for?
Do you mean "Trinity" Freight? And do you mean Trinity Freight or Trinity Logistics?
Is this the TQL you mentioned? https://www.tql.com
If you could tell me the names it would help a lot. It's very possible they are invested under different names - like how Koch and Omidyar bought telecoms a few years ago.
Wow, RD, let's work on this. maybe you can get the word out among your transportation colleagues.
Here's some more explanation - I forgot to mention Gates: https://digital.hbs.edu/platform-digit/submission/convoy-the-uber-for-trucking/
So what about Convoy made you join?
>They would have to usurp DAY and 123loadboard to be taken seriously.
I assure you that they are serious - or they wouldn't be pouring money into it. There IS a reason for that - The question is: What is the reason?
>I also noticed that they secured $250m in funding which is loose change for the collection of men you listed. If they were serious they would have bought DAT or brokers such as Teinity, TQL or Landstar. When you see this…the end is near.
Is is it "DAY" or "DAT?" What does that stand for?
Do you mean "Trinity" Freight? And do you mean Trinity Freight or Trinity Logistics?
Is this the TQL you mentioned? https://www.tql.com
If you could tell me the names it would help a lot. It's very possible they are invested under different names - like how Koch and Omidyar bought telecoms a few years ago.
Sorry, I was typing from my phone and phat fingered it, but I meant DAT loadboard. My dispatcher must have signed us up in an effort to view more loads. When I logged in, the available loads were non existent. I can't imagine it costing $250 Million to build? I am actually looking at the site now and trying to find a load out of Denver to ANYWHERE for refer, they have 13 loads all under 100 miles paying a few hundred bucks....worthless! This tell me they have ZERO broker adoption. I dont see how they keep the lights on.
If they bought a Brokerage suck as Trinity Logists, TQL or Landstar and pushed those loads to convoy it might work? As it sits now, they are a non entity.
Sorry, I was typing from my phone and phat fingered it, but I meant DAT loadboard. My dispatcher must have signed us up in an effort to view more loads. When I logged in, the available loads were non existent. I can't imagine it costing $250 Million to build? I am actually looking at the site now and trying to find a load out of Denver to ANYWHERE for refer, they have 13 loads all under 100 miles paying a few hundred bucks....worthless! This tell me they have ZERO broker adoption. I dont see how they keep the lights on.
If they bought a Brokerage suck as Trinity Logists, TQL or Landstar and pushed those loads to convoy it might work? As it sits now, they are a non entity.
No one is shipping because they are bracing for more inflation. Inflation will cause a collapse in demand.
80% of all US dollars were printed in the last 2 years. That means only 20% of all currency in circulation existed before that. That means prices need to be 5 times higher than 2 years ago. That is the adjustment everyone is bracing for.
No one is shipping because they are bracing for more inflation. Inflation will cause a collapse in demand.
80% of all US dollars were printed in the last 2 years. That means only 20% of all currency in circulation existed before that. That means prices need to be 5 times higher than 2 years ago. That is the adjustment everyone is bracing for.
Makes sense to me, then again, I only squeezed a B out of micor/macro economics classes.
Makes sense to me, then again, I only squeezed a B out of micor/macro economics classes.
here is a youtuber I watch who recently made a video about this.
here is a youtuber I watch who recently made a video about this.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JEbV3Q9etW0
(post is archived)