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I realize America is at a frustrating crossroads right now. Its an inflection point. I think you and a lot of others have done well to keep a level head about all the crazy shit federal, state, and local governments, and their various enforcers, NGOs, and enablers have done and outrages they've committed against American citizens (in addition to internationalisms crimes against Britons, Aussies, and our other western brothers).

If you want to know when the dam will break at a regional or national level, here is my level best assessment:

  1. power goes out for more than a week, or two weeks at most during a hot period in summer.

  2. communications black out for the same amount of time across a large region

  3. there is food disruption (everyone misses 3-4 meals), even if it is only promised as "temporary". This one I'm not even sure about.

Understand what the dam is: Its not "waiting for one event so everyone acts all at once."

Its fear vs deprivation, not outrage vs ambivalence.

Everyone is saying "will this or that event do it?"

No it wont. How it works is,

  1. when people reach a certain level of dissatisfaction, discomfort, or pain. (deprivation)

  2. in a news-cycle length emergency or abnormal political atmosphere

  3. where the conditions cause sufficient people to be thoroughly aggitated that one group takes it out on the other

  4. then people will start looking for other groups to blame.

  5. Then all the outrages come to the fore, the excesses, and crimes of a particular side.

Like taking lid off a "pressure cooker" environment.

Electricity, food, communications, those are all lids.

It requires at least a weeks worth of 'cooking' to get it right, but thats just the minimum.

To be sure, give it 2 weeks, though 3 is a stretch.

Additionally, it can be approached in two ways:

  1. promise "hope" (police reinforcements, or national guard) and continualy deny it or delay it.

  2. demoralize and make it look like everyone is completely and utterly on their own to foster a sense of "lawlessness and anarchy."

Thats the precise 'recipe and ingredient' list needed to cause any large scale fighting or civil conflict. nothing outside that will lead to conflict.

It's fear (of everything the left does, can do, or provides the illusion it can do) to people if they act against them, vs. deprivation in an emergency (and who to blame). Thats what it will take for the public to act in any meaningful capacity, and nothing less than that.

This is not an incitement, instructions, or any form of encouragement, only an analysis of the public sentiment.

I realize America is at a frustrating crossroads right now. Its an inflection point. I think you and a lot of others have done well to keep a level head about all the crazy shit federal, state, and local governments, and their various enforcers, NGOs, and enablers have done and outrages they've committed against American citizens (in addition to internationalisms crimes against Britons, Aussies, and our other western brothers). If you want to know when the dam will break at a regional or national level, here is my level best assessment: 1. power goes out for more than a week, or two weeks at most *during a hot period in summer*. 2. communications black out for the same amount of time across a large region 3. there is food disruption (everyone misses 3-4 meals), even if it is only promised as "temporary". This one I'm not even sure about. Understand what the *dam* is: Its not "waiting for one event so everyone acts all at once." Its fear vs deprivation, **not** outrage vs ambivalence. Everyone is saying "will this or that event do it?" No it wont. How it works is, 1. when people reach a certain *level* of dissatisfaction, discomfort, or pain. (deprivation) 2. in a news-cycle length emergency or abnormal political atmosphere 3. where the conditions cause sufficient people to be thoroughly aggitated that one group takes it out on the other 4. then people will start looking for other groups to blame. 5. Then all the outrages come to the fore, the excesses, and crimes of a particular side. Like taking lid off a "pressure cooker" environment. Electricity, food, communications, those are all lids. It requires at least a weeks worth of 'cooking' to get it right, but thats just the minimum. To be sure, give it 2 weeks, though 3 is a stretch. Additionally, it can be approached in two ways: 1. promise "hope" (police reinforcements, or national guard) and continualy deny it or delay it. 2. demoralize and make it look like everyone is completely and utterly on their own to foster a sense of "lawlessness and anarchy." Thats the **precise** 'recipe and ingredient' list needed to cause any large scale fighting or civil conflict. **nothing** outside that will lead to conflict. It's fear (of everything the left does, can do, or provides the illusion it can do) to people if they act against them, vs. deprivation in an emergency (and who to blame). Thats what it will take for the public to act in any meaningful capacity, and *nothing less than that*. This is not an incitement, instructions, or any form of encouragement, only an analysis of the public sentiment.

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[–] • 0 pt

Even if it happened for several weeks I don't think it would trigger much.

Depends on the conditions-on-the-ground and 'aggravating factors'.

Would state lackies like BLM/antifa be able to resist the temptation to stir the shit?

They're emboldened, and given the right conditions, the state at least risks losing control of them.

And in a volatile political atmosphere, they might realize their mistake too late: political riots during elections years are a different beast than political riots when half the country is up and arms and the police are no longer there to protect the rioters, especially in a region thats gone without for a week or three.

From what I can see, it would take these conditions because the right is reactionary. The right will never by itself take action. But it does react.

Comms networks are another problem.

The difference we have here, is I think, not one of "wouldnt happen" vs "could happen", its more along the lines of "fizzle" versus "boom".

If for example, blm/antifa/the establishment wanted a mass response from the right, going into suburbs would by itself probably be insufficient. There would have to be some sort of multi-week crisis first to make clear that "normal law and order is gone.". They'd have to put everyone on knife's edge, and in outrage-mode and ramp it up fast enough that it wasn't relieved by any sporadic half-hearted action like trump parades or whatever.

What exactly about FM or AM do you think is sufficient to pacify?

[–] • 1 pt

Depends on the conditions-on-the-ground and 'aggravating factors'.

I'll give you that. A large comm disruption would prime the pump. If forces wanted it to "go off" they could make it happen.

As for AM/FM, I think a mix of normal programming, plus frequent news and announcements about: things being normal everywhere else, repairs being made, help and supplies on the way, etc... would be enough to keep people calm and relatively passive. You know, normal propaganda techniques.

[–] • 0 pt

help and supplies on the way, etc... would be enough to keep people calm and relatively passive. You know, normal propaganda techniques.

Imagine the following scenario. Look at it from threat-analysis perspective:

Simple spark gap transmitters is what shit-tier terrorists would use and thats the precise reason that would fail.

Any rogue actors worth their salt would have to recruit 20-somethings, probably antifa-sympathizer, working in telecom (for the ones that do work), to turn radio towers into broadband radio jammers. The towers have power backup so even as the electricity went down, the radio jamming signals would continue. Better yet, they might merge the environmentalist movement with the anti-5G movement, backed up with dissatisfied bernie supporters. A lot of the left are avid climbers too. Followed with "airdropping supplies" by "third parties" at the base or streets leading to cell towers. Anyone coming to fix them would have to go through a horde of "urban youth". If they were told "white supremacists are attempting to weaponize cell towers against inner city blacks" they'd believe it.

Mass communications denial, lights out, and turning the white-supremacist-narrative of the state against the very state officials attempting to solve the dilemma. It goes on long enough, it keeps spreading and growing in scope and damage and collective public action/outrage, kinda like the social equivalent of a forest fire, until its too big for the state to contain without inflicting damage on its own captive citizenry.

After that whoever was behind the campaign have a broader grievance narrative.

This is I think how threat actors of any significance would do it.

The infrastructure in the united states is trash and really needs some big investments against this sort of thing.

[–] • 0 pt

The infrastructure in the united states is trash and really needs some big investments against this sort of thing.

I can't argue with that.