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I realize America is at a frustrating crossroads right now. Its an inflection point. I think you and a lot of others have done well to keep a level head about all the crazy shit federal, state, and local governments, and their various enforcers, NGOs, and enablers have done and outrages they've committed against American citizens (in addition to internationalisms crimes against Britons, Aussies, and our other western brothers).

If you want to know when the dam will break at a regional or national level, here is my level best assessment:

  1. power goes out for more than a week, or two weeks at most during a hot period in summer.

  2. communications black out for the same amount of time across a large region

  3. there is food disruption (everyone misses 3-4 meals), even if it is only promised as "temporary". This one I'm not even sure about.

Understand what the dam is: Its not "waiting for one event so everyone acts all at once."

Its fear vs deprivation, not outrage vs ambivalence.

Everyone is saying "will this or that event do it?"

No it wont. How it works is,

  1. when people reach a certain level of dissatisfaction, discomfort, or pain. (deprivation)

  2. in a news-cycle length emergency or abnormal political atmosphere

  3. where the conditions cause sufficient people to be thoroughly aggitated that one group takes it out on the other

  4. then people will start looking for other groups to blame.

  5. Then all the outrages come to the fore, the excesses, and crimes of a particular side.

Like taking lid off a "pressure cooker" environment.

Electricity, food, communications, those are all lids.

It requires at least a weeks worth of 'cooking' to get it right, but thats just the minimum.

To be sure, give it 2 weeks, though 3 is a stretch.

Additionally, it can be approached in two ways:

  1. promise "hope" (police reinforcements, or national guard) and continualy deny it or delay it.

  2. demoralize and make it look like everyone is completely and utterly on their own to foster a sense of "lawlessness and anarchy."

Thats the precise 'recipe and ingredient' list needed to cause any large scale fighting or civil conflict. nothing outside that will lead to conflict.

It's fear (of everything the left does, can do, or provides the illusion it can do) to people if they act against them, vs. deprivation in an emergency (and who to blame). Thats what it will take for the public to act in any meaningful capacity, and nothing less than that.

This is not an incitement, instructions, or any form of encouragement, only an analysis of the public sentiment.

I realize America is at a frustrating crossroads right now. Its an inflection point. I think you and a lot of others have done well to keep a level head about all the crazy shit federal, state, and local governments, and their various enforcers, NGOs, and enablers have done and outrages they've committed against American citizens (in addition to internationalisms crimes against Britons, Aussies, and our other western brothers). If you want to know when the dam will break at a regional or national level, here is my level best assessment: 1. power goes out for more than a week, or two weeks at most *during a hot period in summer*. 2. communications black out for the same amount of time across a large region 3. there is food disruption (everyone misses 3-4 meals), even if it is only promised as "temporary". This one I'm not even sure about. Understand what the *dam* is: Its not "waiting for one event so everyone acts all at once." Its fear vs deprivation, **not** outrage vs ambivalence. Everyone is saying "will this or that event do it?" No it wont. How it works is, 1. when people reach a certain *level* of dissatisfaction, discomfort, or pain. (deprivation) 2. in a news-cycle length emergency or abnormal political atmosphere 3. where the conditions cause sufficient people to be thoroughly aggitated that one group takes it out on the other 4. then people will start looking for other groups to blame. 5. Then all the outrages come to the fore, the excesses, and crimes of a particular side. Like taking lid off a "pressure cooker" environment. Electricity, food, communications, those are all lids. It requires at least a weeks worth of 'cooking' to get it right, but thats just the minimum. To be sure, give it 2 weeks, though 3 is a stretch. Additionally, it can be approached in two ways: 1. promise "hope" (police reinforcements, or national guard) and continualy deny it or delay it. 2. demoralize and make it look like everyone is completely and utterly on their own to foster a sense of "lawlessness and anarchy." Thats the **precise** 'recipe and ingredient' list needed to cause any large scale fighting or civil conflict. **nothing** outside that will lead to conflict. It's fear (of everything the left does, can do, or provides the illusion it can do) to people if they act against them, vs. deprivation in an emergency (and who to blame). Thats what it will take for the public to act in any meaningful capacity, and *nothing less than that*. This is not an incitement, instructions, or any form of encouragement, only an analysis of the public sentiment.

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[–] • 2 pts (edited )

power goes out for more than a week, or two weeks at most during a hot period in summer.

Having dealt with just a few days of no power earlier this year in Texas, this is very true. At least with sub-freezing weather you have the yard to store cold goods. Everything will go bad in a warm house.

It's all about the fragility/dependency of most people's lives. Contrast that with rural living where you can be self-sufficient for long periods.

[–] • 0 pt

Everything will go bad in a warm house.. It's all about the fragility/dependency of most people's lives. Contrast that with rural living where you can be self-sufficient for long periods.

Exactly. Also, hot weather and no electricity aggregates demographic tensions. Combine that with boredom, and hunger, and you get riots on a much larger scale. If the state or any other actor wanted some sort of civil conflict, this is the conditions they would create.

These conditions haven't been established, so either the state doesn't want a large scale conflict (and theres reason to believe thats true), or they wanted to solidify their power to have the best chance of winning against citizens before the state goes ahead and starts any sort of conflagration.

[–] • 1 pt

I get it, when it's below freezing and people are hungry, things are difficult. But if it's warm and they're hungry, it's time to raid the stores and break in to houses.

[–] • 0 pt

I get it, when it's below freezing and people are hungry, things are difficult.

More along the lines of the right is reactionary. Until the looting/rioting is on a sufficient scale and goes on long enough, it won't break the programming about "the state is in charge. the state will save us! never defend yourselves!". The cold keeps the left in for the most part, saps momentum, so thats a no go for them.

Basically the threat the left poses isn't visible enough and that is greatly muted by people's daily routines, comforts, and the ability to focus on our work and life, to double down. To get "not in my backyard!" to respond, the left has to riot in everyones backyard all at once. And the right has to be desperate enough from circumstance to decide necessity is more important than fear.

If a lightswitch says "danger! high voltage!", the only people who are gonna switch it, are 1. the stupid, 2. the desperate.

Thats how I see the state or foreign actors getting their internecine conflict if thats what they're driving toward.