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So, recently I have been forcing my self to read various things in the general categories dealing with race. I thought Ted Kazinskys manifesto might be interesting so I downloaded the audiobook version online.

Verdict: Mostly bullshit written by an individual that has high IQ in abstract symbolic thinking with an obsessive compulsive disorder that doesn't allow him to understand the world outside of the abstract symbolic psychological cage that he has built for him self.

Ted clearly has ABSOLUTELY ZERO experience in life, zero experience in organizing groups of humans, zero experience in running organizations and zero understanding of human and animal psychology. I have met people like this. They are usually mathematicians or programmers, are hugely productive in their specializations and can concentrate for long periods of time. But, they have no capacity to think outside of their rigidly defined framework of how they believe the universe works. You can't ever get them to concede that they could be wrong.

What he does get right, and correctly predicts as a problem that we will have to deal with in the future (from the perspective of the time when the manifesto was written) is leftism. Although his description of the psychological profiles of leftists are a little too high level, I think he might have provided a reasonable way categorize and think about what is a leftist, how their mind works and what drives them.

What he really gets wrong is the whole thrust of the manifesto: technology has destroyed everything and is the cause of all misery. This is where his obsessive compulsive disorder really shows up. He spends all of his time trying to make the case that technology has destroyed everything and that in order to be saved we must return to ... something nature something. Basically a ludicrously childish set of insights, incomprehensibly retarded analysis and a conclusion that is so vague there is no conclusion beyond we must return to nature.

I know he was experimented on by the government when he was young, but, this guy was broken at birth. In ancient times he would have been killed because he would not be able to provide for the tribe, today these types are useful in expanding fields of specialty that require a lifetime of dedication to move forward.

Overall:

1) Reasonable points made in the first 30 minutes or so.

2) The whole middle is nonsense by someone that has no clue about anything at all.

3) In the last hour or so he doubles back a bit and makes a few reasonable points.

4) The last part is absolute garbage.

VERDICT: The description of leftists might be useful because it summarizes their psychological profile better than most people that I have seen online. Other than that, the manifesto is useless nonsense.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I am forcing my self to read through a bunch of the stuff people link to or keep on bringing up like this manifesto. So far, honestly, most of it is utter garbage. For sure, all of it has some minimal value in either gathering up historical facts that have been deliberately ignored or obfuscated or perhaps even offer a marginal set of insights that MIGHT be considered useful. Overall, virtually nothing that I have read provides any useful information.

Next I will try to get therough the New Zeland manifesto. I agree with those that say that there is something odd about the massacre. I watched it, it did NOT look like people died, especially when he enters that one room with all the bodies in the corner and he fires a couple of shots at them and walks out. I have no proof (seen a few critiques online) but it doesn't read right. Let's see what this manifesto is all about.

So, recently I have been forcing my self to read various things in the general categories dealing with race. I thought Ted Kazinskys manifesto might be interesting so I downloaded the audiobook version online. Verdict: Mostly bullshit written by an individual that has high IQ in abstract symbolic thinking with an obsessive compulsive disorder that doesn't allow him to understand the world outside of the abstract symbolic psychological cage that he has built for him self. Ted clearly has ABSOLUTELY ZERO experience in life, zero experience in organizing groups of humans, zero experience in running organizations and zero understanding of human and animal psychology. I have met people like this. They are usually mathematicians or programmers, are hugely productive in their specializations and can concentrate for long periods of time. But, they have no capacity to think outside of their rigidly defined framework of how they believe the universe works. You can't ever get them to concede that they could be wrong. What he does get right, and correctly predicts as a problem that we will have to deal with in the future (from the perspective of the time when the manifesto was written) is leftism. Although his description of the psychological profiles of leftists are a little too high level, I think he might have provided a reasonable way categorize and think about what is a leftist, how their mind works and what drives them. What he really gets wrong is the whole thrust of the manifesto: technology has destroyed everything and is the cause of all misery. This is where his obsessive compulsive disorder really shows up. He spends all of his time trying to make the case that technology has destroyed everything and that in order to be saved we must return to ... something nature something. Basically a ludicrously childish set of insights, incomprehensibly retarded analysis and a conclusion that is so vague there is no conclusion beyond we must return to nature. I know he was experimented on by the government when he was young, but, this guy was broken at birth. In ancient times he would have been killed because he would not be able to provide for the tribe, today these types are useful in expanding fields of specialty that require a lifetime of dedication to move forward. Overall: 1) Reasonable points made in the first 30 minutes or so. 2) The whole middle is nonsense by someone that has no clue about anything at all. 3) In the last hour or so he doubles back a bit and makes a few reasonable points. 4) The last part is absolute garbage. VERDICT: The description of leftists might be useful because it summarizes their psychological profile better than most people that I have seen online. Other than that, the manifesto is useless nonsense. FINAL THOUGHTS: I am forcing my self to read through a bunch of the stuff people link to or keep on bringing up like this manifesto. So far, honestly, most of it is utter garbage. For sure, all of it has some minimal value in either gathering up historical facts that have been deliberately ignored or obfuscated or perhaps even offer a marginal set of insights that MIGHT be considered useful. Overall, virtually nothing that I have read provides any useful information. Next I will try to get therough the New Zeland manifesto. I agree with those that say that there is something odd about the massacre. I watched it, it did NOT look like people died, especially when he enters that one room with all the bodies in the corner and he fires a couple of shots at them and walks out. I have no proof (seen a few critiques online) but it doesn't read right. Let's see what this manifesto is all about.

(post is archived)

[–] 1 pt

Thanks for the follow up. Looks like I need to do more reading of your material.

In short:

1) Genetics - I see the point you are making I disagree on the economic viability. But, I will entertain the notion.

2) Technology taxation - I am not certain you fully grasp technology, how network effects work and how it all relates to human development. I would be happy to put $20 on any of your technology predictions being wrong. They will be wrong for the following reasons:

  • Human activity is elastic.

  • Technological development is elastic.

  • Technological development isn't a smooth line. There are all kinds of starts, stops, redirects and so on. Changes sometimes come quickly, other times take forever. There is no guarantee technological change will continue.

Let's take physics for example. First 100 years of physics, tons of innovation, we get nukes, nuclear power generation and put men on the moon because those were all low hanging fruit. What has happened in the last 40 years in physics? Nothing. Nothing at all has happened in physics at all, there has been ZERO progress. No one know if this is a misallocation of resources or if all the low hanging fruit has been picked and the distance to the next set of breakthroughs is so large that the human mind cannot cross it.

  • Economics is elastic.

There is zero chance any of your economic predictions even get close to being true.

You do realize that technological development ISN'T without reason or a goal? You do realize that the goal of technology is to develop a race of slaves to do the work that we don't want to?

Marshall Mcluhan, if i remember correctly, said something like "hunanity is the bilogical reproductive system of machines". Well, that is one way to put it, for sure. The other way to say the same thing is that what we all want is a race of slaves that will do all of our hard work. All of the worlds great civilizations were built on slavery of one sort or another.

All that is happening is that machines are doing more and more work for us. As we manage to offload labour to machines, economics will simply change what is scarce and what is not and the price we charge for exchanging the new things of value will change and we will just do that.

You can also say the same thing another way: if humans are the reproductive organs for machines, and we are building a race of machine slaves, then we can also observe that as hunans offload more and more labour on to machines we onboard more and more human friendly computation. That is to say, for every labour job our robot slaves take over we replace with a new job that requires more and more human friendly computation.

Jobs going away won't ever be a problem. What will be a problem is if we manage to make a general purpose ai. We are seriously fucked if that ever happens. However, because the universe is not swarming with intelligent machines suggests that either we are the first to get close to the idea or there is something about the univers that prevents it from becoming plausible.

Otherwise, I think we agree on most stuff. I will have to dig into your posts more.

Thank you.

[–] 1 pt

With genetics my point is compounding returns: economic, civil, and scientific and disappearing deficits: economic and social, make imposed engineering too vital to pass up but too invasive not to cause rebound, so a happy medium reinforced with propaganda and the sort of patience an outside observer not bound by the human lifespan. We have to make this stick and work. Going slow on purpose is also useful because we could learn that we are dangerously limiting our gene pool and give ourselves the resources to correct the problem by not having hard committed to doing this in one generation. The alternative are likely genetic erasure and certain slide back down the bell curve, without this we encounter the great filter.

I'm gonna keep harping on the automation and I'll give you a core notion to my thinking. The horse population in the USA before and after the model T had been on the market for 10 years. In just 10 years 98% of horses were gone, machines that did their complex functions, and in manny cases did them worse were easier to maintain, fix, and less complex in their utilisation, ultimately convenience was a factor. we had to invest in complex infrastructure, and in the case of these machines yes more jobs were created but compare useless humans with useless horses. The number 1 job for women is "healthcare professional" for men it is truck driver/tractor operator, if you included other heavy equipment operators this is an even bigger percentage but just those 2 are practically completely automatable this represents something like a quarter or fifth of male employment. What is a 45 year old trucker going to do? He might be able to get a job in his company's mechanic pool or see if he can snag a job in the same field that requires a human touch like propane delivery or parcel delivery but the job pool is getting clogged, a massive labor surplus now exists, his guy can only be retrained so much and it's not worth a big investment to train this guy for at most 15 more years of work when you could train a 20 year old and get 40 out of him. I'm underselling Mr. 45 a bit I know but you can see it doesn't take 1 mechanic per truck even if you need to onboard software and computer techs for a fleet you have likely halved your total employees in 3 to 5 years at about all of the companies that can. Even if truck robberies become an issue highway security companies can defend multiple corporate contracts at one time with just one or two guys in a patrol vehicle. At best, contractors and all, big rig transport industry is going to downsize by 25%. Tractors for farming might downsize but I'm betting automation leads to specialization that encourages further automation or contract work going up but farmers hate contracting maintenance and repairs it could result in independent farmers being priced out of the economy and a dystopic nightmare where tech companies control the majority of our food supply, hell, soil farming could go the way of the dinosaur in a number of crops, hydroponics are far easier to automate and you can use it for raising fish on a large scale, all in doors. I've recently seen a gigantic vertical hydroponic crop belt, imagine a long oval chain constantly moving the plants in large aeroponic planters up toward the roof and back down into resting water below the nutrition suspension the resting water is absorbed when plants come down then fish can nibble and clean any unwanted growth off exposed roots, plants go back up and this all simulates a day night cycle and during the day natural sunlight reduces electricity costs and charges batteries via solar to run at night no need for pesticides or large tractors and because its hydroponic/aeroponic plants grow faster and they can be grown out of season, the only reason this isn't how all farming is done is because economies of scale are slow to develop due to high initial investment and conventional agriculture industry, pesticides, farm equipment, stands to loose out on big money. Apparently vertical rice patties are also looking like they are the future too. We can always handle more food I think so I'm not so sure the total workers will shrink in this example but the yields will go up and workers will need to be retrained, downsizing is the favorite tactic of US business so I could see problems like Mr.45 all over again.

The next issue in this retraining problem can go back to horses, horses stopped being the best option for transportation in most environments and also stopped being the best choice for certain manual labor jobs as a result most got sold to become dogfood/glue and because so many horses hit the market many became affordable as farm equipment and transportation again for a short time but there was no market for new horses outside of ranches and race tracks and they did their best to breed their own horses, most horses were never up to becoming race horses or ranch horses most were just meant to pull carts to and from town or go visit the neighbors or family on for a day trip. Those meat and glue horses couldn't be retrained to do another job because they lacked needed ability.

Here comes the big IQ tie in: https://m.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=187&v=5-Ur71ZnNVk&feature=emb_title I don't like jordan peterson but he does a good job explaining this succinctly, there's a longer video of this discussion about 20 minutes long, it gives more detail and citations. At a certain point menial jobs like fast food worker or shelf stocker will vanish or downsize by 80% or more as robots can do them and those menial workers will often be perpetually unemployable. If incompetence lies below 83 IQ then as the needed intellectual prowess goes up due to menial labour evaporating so too will that line of competence

So what you should be asking yourself is: Why didn't those horses just learn to repair automobiles?

Niggers, low motivation, and low IQ people aren't going to have room in the post automation economy, this economically disaffected block will say as much as you have about the purpose of technology and say it's not fair that they shouldn't benefit from the match of technology. Their solution will be a basic income for all and it will have a majority support as nearly a third lose their jobs, maybe half could find new work but most new work in the post automation landscape will be in healthcare or require a high proficiency with computers, and creativity. So you have something like 20% or more of the population becoming unemployable this decade we will have a perpetual 25% plus unemployment rate and the consequences of basic income will either make or break the family unit.

On one hand marrying and receiving UBI means you are taken care of and don't need other roommates, on the other hand as a woman you could just shack up with your best girlfriend and keep being a slut until you both get so old and haggard you share one dog to save on food. I think women will be lost but girls will see an obvious way of life.

You see my family home life reform concept feeds into this, with jobs getting scarce we could in theory solve most of the problems by removing a huge block of the existing labor force because as the labor surplus disappears wages must become more competitive. In my new intergenerational family women are far more likely to stay in the home and become home makers who dabble in a small business or craft they can monetize at will custom fashion, home decor, or other hand made goods will go up in value allowing women to have an at will side gig as a hobby, in a single acre a family matriarch and her daughters in law could operate a number of business, a few robots in the basement sweatshop pumping out 80%+ of the work for various garments a partially automated aeroponic greenhouse, some chickens and even a goat or cow, make enough money and you can get a robotic cooking wall, this is a touch of light futurism but these things all exist today, the question is whether they could become affordable soon. Dishwashers, washing and drying machines all enabled feminism but robotic cooking walls installed over compatible cooking and preparation surfaces, folding machines, robot vacuums, and economic viability from the home would call many women back, ot at least feminist warcrys lose their meaning, the woman's work becomes just having and raising children and dusting, yeah its sedentary but with our postal services, internet and advanced technology a home business that allows you to work as you like will be easier than ever, this means much of the feminists gripes over traditional marriages are no longer viable, being a house servant who can't afford to escape servitude can't be a complaint, "barefoot, pregnant, and chained in the kitchen" wont make sense to the next generation of girls who see mom working in the home and earning money to buy new designer pregnancy shoes and to pay for multiple family vacations per year. As a part of my education reforms sumer break would be shortened and winter break lengthened. Stir crazy mothers have something to motivate their side-hustles.

Over this decade automation will only be limited by wheels, the dexterity of actuators, and a human sensibility where needed. I can give an edge example: teachers they can assign work, grade it, check for errors and identify them, and even adequately grade essays and book reports, teachers skim them but an AI can evaluate presence of subject matter, correct use of language, and plagiarism. One teacher then could handle many more students as an AI teacher can do most of the job of a regular teacher while keeping a full documentation on each student for a human teacher to review. This would depend on the subject and discipline level of students obviously.

For every 4-5 service, manufacturing, and transportation job lost I figure 1 new maintenance/engineer/technician position would open up. for every 10 such jobs lost I'd bet a security job would open up and a staff/management position would disappear. I think 40% of the theoretical workforce will be unemployed in 2034 and if we don't stop jews/dems basic income, which will be necessary to live, will only be delivered to good goys who have high enough social credit scores and don't blaspheme against the new state religion of holocaust worship, white people bad, diversity good, and whatever ideas chinks demand we worship.

As to that last paragraph of yours I think our great filter is probably spiteful mutants if the rise and fall of civilizations recorded in history is any indication, further I think simulation theory is probably correct, holographic theory was disproven but that's not saying much, its likely we have a creator and that our simulation just may not have the processing power for alien life or the great filter is more complex than we think, it could be mitochondrial organelles make the difference between complex life and everything else and that there are manny quite specific filters before that one, M class, oxygen nitrogen atmosphere, 70% water, gravity within minor deviation of 9.8m/s squared, could be all the other intelligent life is stuck on planets they can't escape because of higher gravity, most earth like planets are larger by a fair bit and we know no rocket could escape a planet just ~20% more massive.

I apologize if some of this doesn't jive too well, I've typed it out during a couple of breaks; you might see my conundrum though, with a mix of predictions and pursuits all so interconnected where does one start in writing a coherent manifesto? Frankly I'm tempted to transcend the manifesto as a medium and make a digital museum piece of sorts, something like that assatru theological guide that sperg u/theoldones was making. As much as I've written there are still things like deurbanization and "sub-rural" living I haven't touched on and then there is the problem of strategy, telling people how to stop our enemies and begin our revitalization would likely be like farting into the wind except the wind has eyes and ears and finds my ass gas to be too potent for me to go free.

[–] 1 pt (edited )

No, no. it's fine. I got it all and already know Jordan Peterson and agree on not liking him as well.

I see what you are thinking about. Obviously I can't really disagree with anything that you wrote and we will have to see how things develop and work through it.

The problem with predicting the future is a problem of resolution (high resolution vs low resolution).

For example, in the late 80s early 90s I remember one author predicting that in the future people would mostly do information work. I remember thinking they were crazy, how can anyone build a house by just typing. Well, their prediction was low resolution and directionally correctly. But, if you zoom into their prediction and look at the high resolutione details, they were completely wrong. Not only did we automate virtually nothing, the amount of people employed increased and we had no idea that the whole information worker would be spear headed by sex workers and thots followed by big conglomorates NONE OF WHICH EXISTED (that is to say none of the blue chips of the day managed to really get a stake in any part of the information age). IN other words, we all could feel change was on it way, but absolutely no one could predict any of it.

We can see all kinds of predictions like this, that are directionally correct at low resolution but completely wrong at high resolutions:

Tesla and Arthur C. Clarkes thoughts on global communication were dead on. But no one had any clue that Twitter and Google would be part of the military industrial complex working to tear the country apart.

If you look at all of human writing and prediction making, you will find an intersting point: NO HUMAN PREDICTIONS OR FICTION WRITING IS PREDICTING ANYTHING BEYOND THE INVENTION OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE.

It's as if there is a dead end in our imagination and we cannot see beyond it.

Perhaps the Matrix tried, but that stops at AI and doesn't go beyond it. Dune is predicated on humanity fighting a war against ai and outlawing computing machines forever. If you think about it, Dune is the real Ted Kazinsky manifesto.

So, we seem to be able to make enough low resolution guesses about the future that some of them turn out to be true, while, we have made infinite amounts of guesses about the future at a high resolution of detail and basically 100% of those guesses were wrong. I have never read a single one that was correct at a high level of resolution.

So, what does that mean?

I am not sure. It suggests a computability problem. Either we don't have enough computing capability to compute the future at a high enough resolution OR the future is not coputable at high resolution. If the future is not computable, it might be for quite a few reasons, one of which would be that while the universe is deterministic it is only computable in the past and not the future. That just means that if you run the universe simulation with exactly the same starting point and variables you will end up with different results in each simulation run.

You can actually see this in humans trying to compute the outcome of different economic systems. Rigid ideologies are held by people that spend all their time thinking that they can compute the future at a high resolution so they implement command economies like communism in order to generate outcomes that they want. Well, the simulation guarantees that not only can't you compute (predict) results at a high enough resolution, even if you could, each time you ran the simulation you would get different outcomes so you would never be able to guranatee the outcomes that you want.

You can also technically think about what communists do, but don't understand, is that they extract computing out of the system and centralize it in a single location in the system. In doing so, they serialize all computation and slow it down.

This is why capitalism works. What it does is simply acknowledge that while you can compute a directionaly correct trajectory, you CANNOT compute at any high enough resolution to be useful. Capitalism simply allows computation to happen at EVERY part of the system simultaneously. The end result is infinitely parallel computation that results in fast coputation.

Our brains work on the same principle. Inter neuron communication is slow but because computation happens in parallale at such a massive scale, you can have low bandwidth interconnects handle enormous visual systems, high level logic systems and all of the independent low level primitive systesm all calculating informationsimultaneously AT BODY TEMEPRATURE. No need for a cooling case beyond what your body provides.

So, when I read detailed analysis like yours, well, they could be right. And, it is useful to try and imagine all of the permutations we could run into. But, the math guarantees that we can only get things directionally correct and won't ever be able to predict anything at a high enough resolution to be useful.

And you aren't wrong. I remember the communist fall in eastern europe in the 80s and the leadup to that. The people that left all made money, the people that stayed all are poor (mostly). BUT! The people that left lost their souls, lost their culture, lost their children to foreign cultures and the people that stayed retained their history, their culture and have a future in their countries. The problem with my saying that we cannot predict the future at any detail kind of glosses over the fact that there is great pain in change and great pain in no change.

What I like about everyone on this site is precisely this: we are all trying to figure out what to do about the future, how to get together and organize as people without loosing our souls and our children to evil.

My answer is, let's keep on having these conversations and I want to read everything you guys predict. BUT!!!!! The most important thing all of us can do is to start working towards having 10 kids + per family. Of all of the strategies and goals that we can reach for, THAT is the single greatest and most fruitful calculation that we can make in the simulation.

// EDIT: The part that reads that the universe seems computable in reverse (into history) as opposed to is actually wrong. I meant that in the sense that hindsight is 20/20 and the future is really difficult to predict. That colloquialism is also wrong. First, while the future is incredibly difficult to calculate at high resolution, we can make predictions at low resolution, for example we can predict the positions of all of the planets to great degrees of certainty far into the future. We can predict all sorts of low resolution things about the future. Likewise, the math that predicts the future is the same math that lets us calculate things about the past. The saying 'the past is always 20/20' is a nice way of saying 'just like you cannot predict the future to any great degree, you cannot predict what would have happened if any single piece of history was changed, because the simulation needs to be processed forward from the point of that change'.

Basically, that whole part is wrong, I should have written something like "the past seems certain while the future does not". Or maybe not written it at all.