An honest look at the 'outbreak' in china.

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17 dead as of yesterday, 18 today. puts the lethality at 5.8 to 5.9%

Others are saying "look at the number of people who recovered vs died" which would put the lethality at MERs levels e.x. 30-40% but that sounds far fetched.

Reading through volumes of ZH comments heres the conclusions I draw:

Why is the u.s. not panicked about this? If it were as bad as so many are saying they would have definitely shut down all flights into the u.s. from asia.

But maybe not.

Others are claiming it looks like a move or excuse to shut down protests in HK. Makes sense. They can't just go in and kill a bunch of protesters without causing an international "humanitarian crisis."

15 of those 18 deaths were healthcare workers, infected by one man, a so called "super spreader." A mutant straint, way deadlier? Probably not.

I find it unlikely (no basis, just my gut) that something thats eighty percent related to SARS would go from infecting 4 people on average per person infected, to fourteen fucking people on average. Better still, why did all of the people he infected die? Either he caught a mutated strain thats so infectious and so deadly it could literally cause black plague levels of death (not likely), OR FAR more likely, those nurses and practioners were part of a team lead by a doctor in one department that didn't go along with the PLA's agenda and narrative.

I've seen others talk about how this is coming on the coattails of the african swine flu or "pig ebola" outbreak and tentative talk about how the CDC has preparedness guides for this particular disease, and that the guide in question (it exists, I've seen it) talks about how to "handle and protect yourself from blood, vomit, and diarrhea." Pneumonia doesn't cause those symptoms, but on the other hand the guide seemed like a general set of rules to follow, not a manual on what you'll actually encounter.

China is being hammered from all sides. They culled something like a third of their entire pork industry. They are losing the tariff and trade war. Hong Kongs existence separate to them threatens their internal stability. They have way too many men and way too few women to keep the population happy. They're hemorrhaging money in Africa and on the one-belt-one-road initiative, and now this disease.

What they need is an excuse for strong internal control.

Cutting off and quarantining a city larger than NYC (Wuhan) would provide literally the perfect opportunity to break normal, and establish a new precedent that gives them a lot more leeway without pushing the population to revolt any more than they are. It's "for the safety of the public" of course.

My take: U.S. didn't shut down flights from china because this isn't some new super-flu-aids-ebola-itis or some shit, though state made pathogens may or may not be involved (theres a bioweapons lab within half a kilometer of wuhan or so I heard). No, we didn't shut down because all this is, is a bad flu. Of course spanish flu was a bad flu too, but they didn't have modern sanitation, preventative measures, or modern medicine.

Meanwhile whether it's better or worse than they claim, it's not better or worse by much. The PLA and Xi are up to some fuckery due to their political and economic situation. I suspect this disease will pass like all the other scares. A big nothingburger as readers on ZH and elsewhere have wrote.

Whats everyone else's take on this?

Yesterday the official count was 555. Now it's 653. Thats a day by day increase of 17.65%, or an 'r0' (just a term for the number of people 1 infected person will in turn go on to infect on average) of 5.665. 17 dead as of yesterday, 18 today. puts the lethality at 5.8 to 5.9% Others are saying "look at the number of people who recovered vs died" which would put the lethality at MERs levels e.x. 30-40% but that sounds far fetched. Reading through *volumes* of ZH comments heres the conclusions I draw: Why is the u.s. not panicked about this? If it were as bad as so many are saying they would have *definitely* shut down all flights into the u.s. from asia. But maybe not. Others are claiming it looks like a move or excuse to shut down protests in HK. Makes sense. They can't just go in and kill a bunch of protesters without causing an international "humanitarian crisis." 15 of those 18 deaths were healthcare workers, infected by one man, a so called "super spreader." A mutant straint, way deadlier? Probably not. I find it unlikely (no basis, just my gut) that something thats eighty percent related to SARS would go from infecting 4 people on average per person infected, to fourteen fucking people on average. Better still, why did *all* of the people he infected die? Either he caught a mutated strain thats so infectious and so deadly it could literally cause black plague levels of death (not likely), OR FAR more likely, those nurses and practioners were part of a team lead by a doctor in one department that didn't go along with the PLA's agenda and narrative. I've seen others talk about how this is coming on the coattails of the african swine flu or "pig ebola" outbreak and tentative talk about how the CDC has preparedness guides for this particular disease, and that the guide in question (it exists, I've seen it) talks about how to "handle and protect yourself from blood, vomit, and diarrhea." Pneumonia doesn't cause those symptoms, but on the other hand the guide seemed like a general set of rules to follow, not a manual on what you'll actually encounter. China is being hammered from all sides. They culled something like a third of their entire pork industry. They are losing the tariff and trade war. Hong Kongs existence separate to them threatens their internal stability. They have way too many men and way too few women to keep the population happy. They're hemorrhaging money in Africa and on the one-belt-one-road initiative, and now this disease. What they need is an excuse for strong internal control. Cutting off and quarantining a city larger than NYC (Wuhan) would provide literally the *perfect* opportunity to break normal, and establish a new precedent that gives them a lot more leeway without pushing the population to revolt any more than they are. It's "for the safety of the public" of course. My take: U.S. didn't shut down flights from china because this isn't some new super-flu-aids-ebola-itis or some shit, though state made pathogens may or may not be involved (theres a bioweapons lab within half a kilometer of wuhan or so I heard). No, we didn't shut down because all this is, is a bad flu. Of course spanish flu was a bad flu too, but they didn't have modern sanitation, preventative measures, or modern medicine. Meanwhile whether it's better or worse than they claim, it's not better or worse by much. The PLA and Xi are up to some fuckery due to their political and economic situation. I suspect this disease will pass like all the other scares. A big nothingburger as readers on ZH and elsewhere have wrote. Whats everyone else's take on this?

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