I don't understand, what is ELA? and the angle of the 2nd pic is different

What about this one from my friend in the bay area? https://pic8.co/sh/ipnIAY.jpeg

I don't think that's conclusive. High contrast regions like the "This sale" and "Gallons" produce similar error levels as the supoosedly fake text. Also, it's a PNG, not a JPG but I don't know how Fotoforensics treats these, might use similar compression algos?

From their tutorial:

What To Look For ELA highlights differences in the JPEG compression rate. Regions with uniform coloring, like a solid blue sky or a white wall, will likely have a lower ELA result (darker color) than high-contrast edges. The things to look for:

Edges: Similar edges should have similar brightness in the ELA result. All high-contrast edges should look similar to each other, and all low-contrast edges should look similar. With an original photo, low-contrast edges should be almost as bright as high-contrast edges.

Textures: Similar textures should have similar coloring under ELA. Areas with more surface detail, such as a close-up of a basketball, will likely have a higher ELA result than a smooth surface.

Surfaces: Regardless of the actual color of the surface, all flat surfaces should have about the same coloring under ELA.