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>Everyone started canceling building orders last spring when lockdowns started. Mills started scaling back. And then the box stores started selling lumber for home improvement and homeowner projects at an unprecedented rate. And then home building came back online as people fled urban areas. Supply lagged behind a little.

>Mills are taking advantage of every excuse they can with muh COVID to keep production low so they can keep charging record rates for lumber. I work on the log supply side of forestry and while delivered log prices have risen somewhat, they are not anywhere near in line with what mills are now charging for their products. They're posting record profits each quarter and very little of that value is making its way through to log suppliers, loggers, truckers, or private forestland owners. They've had a year to figure out their faux production woes and patience throughout the rest of the industry is wearing thin. I'd imagine other sectors of the homebuilding industry are in a similar situation.

>There is also a general shortage of loggers and truckers in many regions. Those sectors of forestry have not recovered from the spotted owl / NEPA fuckery and the 2008 recession and they probably never will. Mills have virtual monopolies in most places and can dictate prices at will. Loggers barely squeak by when prices are lower and since they're not getting a piece of the market when it's hot, there's very little incentive to invest in more equipment or add crews.

>Also, hyperinflation from printing trillions of dollars.

>>Everyone started canceling building orders last spring when lockdowns started. Mills started scaling back. And then the box stores started selling lumber for home improvement and homeowner projects at an unprecedented rate. And then home building came back online as people fled urban areas. Supply lagged behind a little. >>Mills are taking advantage of every excuse they can with muh COVID to keep production low so they can keep charging record rates for lumber. I work on the log supply side of forestry and while delivered log prices have risen somewhat, they are not anywhere near in line with what mills are now charging for their products. They're posting record profits each quarter and very little of that value is making its way through to log suppliers, loggers, truckers, or private forestland owners. They've had a year to figure out their faux production woes and patience throughout the rest of the industry is wearing thin. I'd imagine other sectors of the homebuilding industry are in a similar situation. >>There is also a general shortage of loggers and truckers in many regions. Those sectors of forestry have not recovered from the spotted owl / NEPA fuckery and the 2008 recession and they probably never will. Mills have virtual monopolies in most places and can dictate prices at will. Loggers barely squeak by when prices are lower and since they're not getting a piece of the market when it's hot, there's very little incentive to invest in more equipment or add crews. >>Also, hyperinflation from printing trillions of dollars.

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[–] 0 pt

This seems to contradict your own suggestion that covid bucks are leading to a labor shortage. If the laborers are all off the books already, then they are probably not getting unemployment checks (and the covid bucks that go along with it), so they're not disincentivized from working.

[–] 0 pt

Not sure how it exactly works. I'm pretty sure illegals can get SNAP and EBT etc. I don't think anyone is checking that deeply into who is scamming who.

[–] 1 pt

I'm sure they are getting welfare and food stamps if they've been off the books the whole time. But that would have been the case regardless of covid, and they wouldn't be getting covid bucks now because you have to be employed to draw unemployment. So you can't really say that's a reason for a labor shortage.

Honestly I think there is another class of people, call it white collar or whatever, who are more likely to take advantage of the bucks than laborers. And since they are primarily the ones hiring out all these services, the extra money in their pockets is probably what's causing a labor shortage.

[–] 1 pt

Maybe you are right. Just relaying what my eastern European contractor was telling me.