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261

A simple idea with dangerous implications:

  1. Taiwan attacks one of its own ships--disguised to look like a chinese vessel

  2. they follow up with a media blitz calling it "an accidental spark that could ignite war", pushing the narrative that taiwan actually retaliated against chinas drills

  3. The u.s. is now forced to either commit or back off, showing where it stands. China is also likewise forced to either commit to an attack, and risk being shown as the aggressor if Taiwan decides to reveal it attacked one of its own ship and not a chinese vessel--OR china backs off so as not to provoke an actual conflict.

Taiwan gets the best of both worlds unless both sides decide on war.

Three out of four outcomes lead to brief skirmishes, before coming to a ceasefire. Only one outcome (both sides choose war in taiwan), leads to a bad outcome for taiwan.

Taiwan can always claim later that they were conducting "our own training drills and a miscommunication happened somewhere and we thought we sunk an actual chinese naval vessel. And then the media turned it into something it wasn't before we could sort through the fog of war."

A simple idea with dangerous implications: 1. Taiwan attacks one of its own ships--disguised to look like a chinese vessel 2. they follow up with a media blitz calling it "an accidental spark that could ignite war", pushing the narrative that taiwan *actually retaliated against chinas drills* 3. The u.s. is now forced to either commit or back off, showing where it stands. China is also likewise forced to either commit to an attack, and risk being shown as the aggressor if Taiwan decides to reveal it attacked one of its own ship *and not a chinese vessel*--OR china backs off so as not to provoke an actual conflict. Taiwan gets the best of both worlds unless *both* sides decide on war. Three out of four outcomes lead to brief skirmishes, before coming to a ceasefire. Only one outcome (both sides choose war in taiwan), leads to a bad outcome for taiwan. Taiwan can always claim later that they were conducting "our own training drills and a miscommunication happened somewhere and we thought we sunk an actual chinese naval vessel. And then the media turned it into something it wasn't before we could sort through the fog of war."

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