All Russia has to do to turn on-the-fence allies definitively against the u.s. and thus crush the NATO war effort is this:

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• 3y (edited 3y)

this: Offer to accept u.s. dollars from the hesitant nation's in exchange for them accepting rubles--and only from those nations that agree.

The only thing the u.s. can do is freeze those assets, or demand they be frozen, alienating more allies. In fact because of structural inflation happening now , the u.s. has short-term incentive to respond this way, and will double down, thus guaranteeing it cuts itself off further : Every time foreign reserves and liquidity are locked out of the u.s. market, it prevents them from coming ashore (which is already happening), slowing inflation, and making available liquidity more valuable. On the other-hand failure to respond will say to the international community that it is now open season on the USD and nations formally under the u.s. thumb are therefore free to act with impunity .

It is an absolute no-win situation for the u.s, and it will be forced to make a move, zugzwang as it were.

Instead of setting up rubles-for-gold, if Russia decides to currency swap hesitant nations for USD, they'll simultenously

cut the throat of asset freezes

re-add value to the dollar reserves of nations that want to side with russia (the same nations who are hesitating because they are afraid of sanctions on themselves )

russia will then be able to settle debts in USD again, to third parties, who are using this lame excuse as the reason for cutting off russia. Putin would basically be calling their bluff.

Essentially he would be setting up a SECOND USD sphere-of-influence, that excludes the united states itself .

Russia guarantees in exchange that it will always honor reserves, so long as the nations trading, freeze out the u.s. (or refuse to honor u.s. economic sanctions). They agree to sell oil and trade in EITHER USD and/or rubles (or a mix of both, with some minimum necessary).

The u.s. would then be utterly stuck between 1. hyperinflating to survive ( and hurt russia), or 2. quitting printing to maintain legitimacy and prevent nations from going over to russias version of the u.s. petrodollar.

Like a giant middle finger straight into the eye of a false god, they would be saying to the illegitimate u.s. government "we will smash your idols and use them like broken play things, and then discard them at our leisure."

Whats the u.s. gonna be able to do? Start a war to preserve the petrodollar?

They'd just be bolstering russia! kek.

Why print rubbles, when you can force your opponent to debase their own currency?

Sometimes the winning move is completely counterintuitive. And this is that.

It will initially make russia appear weak, and the short term narrative will be "russia still trading in the usd. russia lacks confidence in the ruble."

But the net effect will be to drive down the ruble in value, making a few nations want to dump it. The beauty of this? Russia can buy those rubles up cheap and recast them. Or other nations can "cast their lot" in with russia, deciding their side, by purchasing those rubles. Theres bound to be a few greedy ones. The effect too is that russia reduces leverage against it, and can do some "clean up" by destroying the rubles it bought, raising the value of what it and its citizens have, making imports cheaper, and oil and gas exports even more expensive for the enemies of the federation. And simultenously this deflation of the ruble, acts as a loyalty bribe or promise fulfilment to any nations willing to agree to this scheme or already holding rubles.

If Russia were to go through with this strategy, I expect the u.s. bloc to splinter on the economic stress, with an eventual pivot to BRICs within 2-5 years, and the petrodollar completely abandoned. The u.s. would then become export dependent and massively vulnerable at the same time china is building the belt and road initiative . The situation then reverses, and russia and china can and will end up, eventually with dominant control over world shipping, at the very moment when the u.s. is reverting back to being an exporter--which will be dependent on the good will of russia and china to allow us to use the world trade/shipping infrastructure.

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this: Offer to *accept* u.s. dollars from the hesitant nation's in exchange for them accepting rubles--and *only* from those nations that agree. The only thing the u.s. can do is freeze those assets, or demand they be frozen, alienating *more* allies. In fact *because* of structural inflation happening *now*, the u.s. has short-term incentive to respond this way, and will double down, thus guaranteeing it cuts itself off *further*: Every time foreign reserves and liquidity are locked out of the u.s. market, it *prevents* them from coming ashore (which is already happening), slowing inflation, and making *available* liquidity *more* valuable. On the other-hand *failure* to respond will say to the international community that it is **now open season on the USD and nations formally under the u.s. thumb are therefore free to act with impunity**. It is an absolute no-win situation for the u.s, and it will be *forced* to make a move, zugzwang as it were. Instead of setting up rubles-for-gold, if Russia decides to currency swap hesitant nations for USD, they'll simultenously 1. cut the throat of asset freezes 2. re-add value to the dollar reserves of nations that *want* to side with russia (the same nations who are hesitating because they are afraid of sanctions on *themselves*) 3. russia will then be able to settle debts in USD again, to third parties, who are using this lame excuse as the reason for cutting off russia. Putin would basically be calling their bluff. Essentially he would be setting up a SECOND USD sphere-of-influence, **that excludes the united states itself**. Russia guarantees in exchange that it will *always* honor reserves, so long as the nations trading, freeze out the u.s. (or refuse to honor u.s. economic sanctions). They agree to sell oil and trade in EITHER USD and/or rubles (or a mix of both, with some minimum necessary). The u.s. would then be utterly stuck between 1. hyperinflating to survive (**and** hurt russia), or 2. quitting printing to maintain legitimacy and prevent nations from going over to **russias** version of the u.s. petrodollar. Like a giant middle finger straight into the eye of a false god, they would be saying to the illegitimate u.s. government "we will smash your idols and use them like broken play things, and then discard them at our leisure." Whats the u.s. gonna be able to do? Start a war to preserve the petrodollar? They'd just be bolstering russia! kek. Why print rubbles, when you can *force* your opponent to debase their *own* currency? Sometimes the winning move is completely counterintuitive. And this is that. It will initially make russia appear weak, and the short term narrative will be "russia still trading in the usd. russia lacks confidence in the ruble." But the net effect will be to drive down the ruble in value, making a few nations want to dump it. The beauty of this? Russia can buy those rubles up cheap and recast them. Or other nations can "cast their lot" in with russia, deciding their side, by purchasing those rubles. Theres bound to be a few greedy ones. The effect too is that russia reduces leverage against it, and can do some "clean up" by destroying the rubles it bought, raising the value of what it and its citizens have, making imports cheaper, and oil and gas exports even *more* expensive for the enemies of the federation. And simultenously this deflation of the ruble, acts as a *loyalty bribe* or *promise fulfilment* to any nations willing to agree to this scheme or *already holding* rubles. If Russia were to go through with this strategy, I expect the u.s. bloc to splinter on the economic stress, with an eventual pivot to BRICs within 2-5 years, and the petrodollar completely abandoned. The u.s. would then become export dependent and massively vulnerable **at the same time china is building the belt and road initiative**. The situation then reverses, and russia and china *can and will* end up, **eventually** with dominant control over world shipping, at the very moment when the u.s. is reverting back to being an exporter--which will be dependent on the *good will* of russia and china to *allow* us to use the world trade/shipping infrastructure.

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